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Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russian Federation; Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Sofiia R. Borisova

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow, Russian Federation; Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of non-resource revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia by types of economic activity. The purpose of this study was to identify which sectors are the most sensitive to shocks form the fiscal point of view, and to answer the questions: how long it takes for the revenues of different sectors recover from “local lows” and how the sectoral structure of budget revenues affects the volatility of payments. In accordance with the set objectives, we examined the dynamics of consolidated budget revenues in real terms for the period 2008–2022 as a whole and by sector. In addition, a sectoral analysis was provided for CIT. The calculations were based on the data of the Federal Tax Service prepared by excluding payments on natural rent. The analysis showed that revenue fluctuations are largely determined by the dynamics of payments from the extractive sector (especially oil production), and an increase in the sector’s share is likely to increase the overall volatility of revenues. In fiscal terms, the processing sector is the most sustainable for total revenues but provides a source of volatility in CIT dynamics. Revenues from financial activities show the fastest recovery from the crises. Trade and finance have a stabilizing effect on both total revenues and CIT dynamics. The results of the study can be used at the stage of budget planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina & Sofiia R. Borisova, 2023. "Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 8-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:230601:p:8-26
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-8-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balaev, Alexey I. (Балаев, Алексей), 2017. "Factor Analysis of the Russian Budget System Revenues [Факторный Анализ Доходов Российской Бюджетной Системы]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 8-37, June.
    2. Thomas Garrett, 2009. "Evaluating state tax revenue variability: a portfolio approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 243-246.
    3. Marina Malkina, 2017. "Influence of the Industrial Structure of Economy on the Risk Level of Russian Regions' Tax Systems," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(6), pages 2025-2035.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    taxes; budget revenues; CIT; budget risks; budget revenues by sector;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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