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Regra do teto dos gastos públicos (PEC 55/241) e sustentabilidade da dívida pública no Brasil: Análise de cenários a partir de um modelo DSGE
[Public spending celing rule (PEC 55/241) and public debt sustainabilityin Brazil: scenario analysis from a DSGE model]

Author

Listed:
  • Áydano Ribeiro Leite
  • Cássio da Bessaria Nobrega
  • André Luis Mota dos Santos
  • Fernando Fernandes Neto

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyze, under different scenarios, the trajectory of the public debt with a government current expenditure ceiling rule. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model was used considering two different scenar-ios, assuming compliance or not with the new fiscal rule by the government. In the context in which the government did not comply with the ceiling, the primary result dropped significantly and the public debt grew persistently, even in the face of positive shocks to productivity and taxes. In the scenario where the government complied with the ceiling rule, fiscal responsibility was able to correct the imbal-ance in its accounts, both in the face of the productivity shock and also in the face of fiscal shocks on taxes

Suggested Citation

  • Áydano Ribeiro Leite & Cássio da Bessaria Nobrega & André Luis Mota dos Santos & Fernando Fernandes Neto, 2022. "Regra do teto dos gastos públicos (PEC 55/241) e sustentabilidade da dívida pública no Brasil: Análise de cenários a partir de um modelo DSGE [Public spending celing rule (PEC 55/241) and public de," Estudios Economicos, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Departamento de Economia, vol. 39(79), pages 219-247, july-dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:uns:esteco:v:39:y:2022:i:79:p:219-247
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2022.2767
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trajetória da dívida. regra fiscal. DSGE;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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