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Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, and Job Growth: Evidence from US States

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  • Robert S. Chirinko
  • Daniel J. Wilson

Abstract

We study fiscal foresight using state panel variation in job creation tax credits (JCTCs) and their implementation lags. Using inverse probability weighting to address potential endogeneity, we estimate the dynamic effects of JCTCs during implementation lags, when they go into effect, and afterward. Failing to account for the distorting effects of fiscal foresight results in upwardly biased estimates of their initial impact by about one-third. The true initial impact is small. However, the longer-run cumulative effect is economically significant and implies a fairly low cost per job of approximately $15,000 and a local fiscal multiplier of 1.11–4.22.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S. Chirinko & Daniel J. Wilson, 2023. "Job Creation Tax Credits, Fiscal Foresight, and Job Growth: Evidence from US States," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 481-523.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:nattax:doi:10.1086/724973
    DOI: 10.1086/724973
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    2. Smolyansky, Michael, 2019. "Policy externalities and banking integration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 118-139.
    3. Michael Smolyansky, 2016. "Policy Externalities and Banking Integration," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. E. Mark Curtis & Ryan A. Decker, 2018. "Entrepreneurship and State Taxation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-003, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Mark Partridge & Sydney Schreiner & Alexandra Tsvetkova & Carlianne Elizabeth Patrick, 2020. "The Effects of State and Local Economic Incentives on Business Start-Ups in the United States: County-Level Evidence," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 34(2), pages 171-187, May.
    6. Batut, Cyprien, 2021. "The longer term impact of hiring credits. Evidence from France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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