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Uncertainty and Disagreement in Equilibrium Models

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  • Nabil I. Al-Najjar
  • Eran Shmaya

Abstract

Leading equilibrium concepts require agents' beliefs to coincide with the model's true probabilities and thus be free of systematic errors. This implicitly assumes a criterion that tests beliefs against the observed outcomes generated by the model. We formalize this requirement in stationary environments. We show that there is a tension between requiring that beliefs can be tested against systematic errors and allowing agents to disagree or be uncertain about the long-run fundamentals. We discuss the application of our analysis to asset pricing, Markov perfect equilibria, and dynamic games.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Eran Shmaya, 2015. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 778-808.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/681241
    DOI: 10.1086/681241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. H. Peyton Young & Shmuel Zamir (ed.), 2015. "Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    3. Nabil Al-Najjar & Jonathan Weinstein, 2015. "A Bayesian model of Knightian uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    5. Dekel, Eddie & Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 2004. "Learning to play Bayesian games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 282-303, February.
    6. Matthew O. Jackson & Ehud Kalai & Rann Smorodinsky, 1999. "Bayesian Representation of Stochastic Processes under Learning: de Finetti Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 875-894, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Al-Najjar, Nabil I. & Shmaya, Eran, 2018. "Learning the fundamentals in a stationary environment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 616-624.
    2. Al-Najjar, Nabil I. & Shmaya, Eran, 2019. "Recursive utility and parameter uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 274-288.

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