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Measuring Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption: Evidence from a VAT Increase in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • David Cashin

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

  • Takashi Unayama

    (Hitotsubashi University and RIETI)

Abstract

We estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption (IES) using a preannounced increase in Japan’s consumption tax rate. Because this tax is highly comprehensive, the rate increase was announced prior to its implementation, and because other factors that affect the real interest rate were constant, the tax rate increase presents an ideal natural experiment to estimate the IES. A Japanese monthly household survey is exploited to accurately categorize nondurables, and our empirical specification addresses intratemporal substitution bias. We find that the IES is 0.21 and not significantly different from 0, but it is significantly less than 1.

Suggested Citation

  • David Cashin & Takashi Unayama, 2016. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption: Evidence from a VAT Increase in Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 285-297, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:98:y:2016:i:2:p:285-297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intertemporal Substitution; Consumption; Japanese Consumption Tax; VAT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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