The Intertemporal Substitution and Income Effects of a VAT Rate Increase: Evidence from Japan
AbstractOne of the biggest political issues in Japan is an increase in the rate of value added tax (VAT). In this paper, we evaluate its impact on household expenditure, using Japan's April 1997 VAT rate increase from three to five percent as a case study. A rate increase induces price hikes, and provided this increase in price levels is anticipated, households should engage in intertemporal substitution of purchases. In addition, if households are not compensated for the rate increase, it has the potential to induce an income effect on household consumption. Based on monthly household expenditure data, we find that households spent 30,231 yen more in the quarter prior to the rate increase than they would have in its absence, while the income effect was negligible. Consistent with theoretical predictions, increased outlays on durable and storable non-durable goods and services were responsible for roughly three-quarters of the observed intertemporal substitution effects. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that the VAT rate increase had no impact on real household spending following its implementation, once we have accounted for intertemporal substitution, which caused a large transitory disturbance in household expenditures.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 11045.
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 11th floor, Annex, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) 1-3-1, Kasumigaseki Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8901
Web page: http://www.rieti.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-30 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melvin Stephens, Jr. & Takashi Unayama, 2010.
"The Consumption Response to Seasonal Income: Evidence from Japanese Public Pension Benefits,"
NBER Working Papers
16342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Melvin Stephens & Takashi Unayama, 2011. "The Consumption Response to Seasonal Income: Evidence from Japanese Public Pension Benefits," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 86-118, October.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1995.
"Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?,"
Review of Income and Wealth,
International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 41(4), pages 373-97, December.
- Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2009.
"Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-81, May.
- Karel Mertens & Morten Ravn, 2010. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2009. "Empirical evidence on the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated US tax policy shocks," Working Paper Research 181, National Bank of Belgium.
- Hendel, Igal & Nevo, Aviv, 2001.
"Sales and Consumer Inventory,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt11x3d68b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Iga Hendel and Aviv Nevo., 2001. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," Economics Working Papers E01-307, University of California at Berkeley.
- Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2002. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," NBER Working Papers 9048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Iga Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2002. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," Microeconomics 0201001, EconWPA.
- Hendel, Igal & Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," Competition Policy Center, Working Paper Series qt0p18h2d8, Competition Policy Center, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008.
"Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-68, June.
- Christopher House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2006. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," NBER Working Papers 12514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Louis Kaplow, 2006. "Capital Levies and Transition to a Consumption Tax," NBER Working Papers 12259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
- Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2004. "Intertemporal Substitution and Storable Products," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 536-547, 04/05.
- David CASHIN & UNAYAMA Takashi, 2012. "Short-run Distributional Effects of VAT Rate Change: Evidence from a consumption tax rate increase in Japan," Discussion papers 12029, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (NUKATANI Sorahiko).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.