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The effect of climate change on the production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants: A short and long term ARDL modelling for the case of Tunisia

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  • Oussama ZOUABI

    (LAPE, University of Tunis EL Manar, Tunisia & LEAD, University of Toulon, France)

Abstract

We propose to analyze the direct effect of climate change on the agricultural production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants, in the short and long term, in Tunisia. The methodolog-ical is based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The originality of this method is that it allows time dynamics to be taken into account in the explanation of a variable, thus improving forecasts and economic policies to be implemented in the short and long term. To this end, we used a highly disaggregated database describing the evolu-tion of average temperature, rainfall, fertilizer, agricultural labor and the surface area of each plant in Tunisia over a long period, from 1984 to 2019.The results found reveal that, in the long term, there is a strong positive correlation between cereal production and rainfall in the governorates of North-West Tunisia. Contrary to the results found by the cereal crop, our results show that the average temperature has a positive effect on vege-table production. They also show that rainfall generally has a greater effect on vegetable and cereal production in the long term than in the short term. Our results also show that long term fruit production shows remarkable declines in the most fruit-producing gover-norates following an increase in rainfall and fertilizers, while an increase in production has taken place following an increase in labor force and agricultural area.

Suggested Citation

  • Oussama ZOUABI, 2022. "The effect of climate change on the production of irrigated and non-irrigated plants: A short and long term ARDL modelling for the case of Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 55, pages 75-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:55:y:2022:p:75-92
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural production; Climatic change ; ARDL model; Tunisia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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