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Stock Return Co-movement and Systemic Risk in the Turkish Banking System

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  • Mahir Binici
  • Bulent Koksal
  • Cuneyt Orman

Abstract

This paper investigates the evolution of systemic risk in the Turkish banking sector over the past two decades using co-movement of banks’ stock returns as a systemic risk indicator. In addition, we explore possible determinants of systemic risk, the knowledge of which can be a useful input into effective macroprudential policymaking. Results show that the correlations between bank stock returns almost doubled in 2000s in comparison to 1990s. The correlations decreased somewhat after 2002 and increased again after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Main determinants of systemic risk appear to be the market share of bank pairs, the amount of nonperforming loans, herding behavior of banks, and volatilities of macro variables including the exchange rate, US T-bills, EMBI+, VIX, and MSCI emerging markets index.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahir Binici & Bulent Koksal & Cuneyt Orman, 2013. "Stock Return Co-movement and Systemic Risk in the Turkish Banking System," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(Special I), pages 41-63.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:13:y:2013:i:specialissue:p:41-63
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    Cited by:

    1. Prakash Singh & Sukriti Kumar, 2018. "Risks in banks and its impact on volatility of market returns: an empirical approach," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(2), pages 125-138.
    2. Juan Francisco Martinez & Daniel Oda, 2019. "Índice de sincronía bancaria y ciclos financieros," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 841, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Mohammad Alomari & David. M. Power & Nongnuch Tantisantiwong, 2018. "Determinants of equity return correlations: a case study of the Amman Stock Exchange," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 33-66, January.
    4. Bukre Yildirim Kulekci & Gulden Poyraz & Ismail Gur & Ozan Evkaya, 2023. "Dependence Analysis of the ISE100 Banking Sector Using Vine Copula," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(73-1), pages 55-81, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Co-movement; Systemic risk; Turkish Banking System;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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