Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?
AbstractIn this comment we discuss the problem of reconciling the linear efficiency of price returns with the long-memory of supply and demand. We present new evidence that shows that efficiency is maintained by a liquidity imbalance that co-moves with the imbalance of buyer vs. seller initiated transactions. For example, during a period where there is an excess of buyer initiated transactions, there is also more liquidity for buy orders than sell orders, so that buy orders generate smaller and less frequent price responses than sell orders. At the moment a buy order is placed the transaction sign imbalance tends to dominate, generating a price impact. However, the liquidity imbalance rapidly increases with time, so that after a small number of time steps it cancels all the inefficiency caused by the transaction sign imbalance, bounding the price impact. While the view presented by Bouchaud et al. of a fixed and temporary bare price impact is self-consistent and formally correct, we argue that viewing this in terms of a variable but permanent price impact provides a simpler and more natural view. This is in the spirit of the original conjecture of Lillo and Farmer, but generalized to allow for finite time lags in the build up of the liquidity imbalance after a transaction. We discuss the possible strategic motivations that give rise to the liquidity imbalance and offer an alternative hypothesis. We also present some results that call into question the statistical significance of large swings in expected price impact at long times.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.
Volume (Year): 6 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://taylorandfrancis.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111405
Other versions of this item:
- J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: Is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Papers physics/0602015, arXiv.org.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2004. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of 'random' price changes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 176-190.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003.
"Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes,"
cond-mat/0307332, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Yuval Gefen & Marc Potters & Matthieu Wyart, 2003. "Fluctuations and response in financial markets: the subtle nature of `random' price changes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 0307332, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006.
"Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets,"
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2004. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500063, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
- J. -P. Bouchaud & J. Kockelkoren & M. Potters, 2004. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0406224, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2004.
- Bence Toth & Zoltan Eisler & Fabrizio Lillo & Julien Kockelkoren & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer, 2011.
"How does the market react to your order flow?,"
1104.0587, arXiv.org, revised May 2012.
- Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Andrew W. Lo & Emanuele Viola, 2009.
"A Computational View of Market Efficiency,"
- Mike, Szabolcs & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2008.
"An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 200-234, January.
- Szabolcs Mike & J. Doyne Farmer, 2007. "An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility," Papers 0709.0159, arXiv.org.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Panel Statement: The endogenous dynamics of markets: price impact and feedback loops," Chapters, European Central Bank.
- Khalil al Dayri & Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Francois Muzy, 2010. "The nature of price returns during periods of high market activity," Papers 1010.4226, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2010.
- Wang, Yougui & Stanley, H.E., 2009. "Statistical approach to partial equilibrium analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1173-1180.
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