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Output effects of devaluation: Evidence from Asia

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  • Kamal Upadhyaya
  • Mukti Upadhyay

Abstract

We study the effect of devaluation on output in six developing countries of Asia. In an empirical model that includes monetary, fiscal, and external variables, we examine the impact of devaluation as the effect of real exchange depreciation and alternatively as the effect of nominal devaluation and changes in the foreign-to-domestic price ratio. We find that with few exceptions a devaluation fails to make any effect on output over any length of time — short run, intermediate run or long run. Whatever effect on output we are able to uncover comes from the relative price level (the ratio of foreign to domestic prices) but not from nominal devaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal Upadhyaya & Mukti Upadhyay, 1999. "Output effects of devaluation: Evidence from Asia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 89-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:35:y:1999:i:6:p:89-103
    DOI: 10.1080/00220389908422603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mohammad Afzal, 2004. "Estimating Long-run Trade Elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 757-770.
    3. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    4. Meixing Dai, 2012. "External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 567-585, March.
    5. Kamal P. Upadhyaya & Raja Nag & Franklin G. Mixon, 2023. "Causal Relationships between Oil Prices and Key Macroeconomic Variables in India," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Yu Hsing, 2006. "Responses of output in Poland to shocks to the exchange rate, the stock price, and other macroeconomic variables: a VAR model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1017-1022.
    7. I.Igal Magendzo, 2002. "Are Devaluations Really Contractionary?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 182, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Kamal Upadhyaya & Franklin Mixon & Rabindra Bhandari, 2004. "Exchange rate adjustment and output in Greece and Cyprus: evidence from panel data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(16), pages 1181-1185.
    9. Hem C. Basnet & Kamal P. Upadhyaya, 2015. "Impact of oil price shocks on output, inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(29), pages 3078-3091, June.
    10. Mohammad A. Razzaque & Sayema Haque Bidisha & Bazlul Haque Khondker, 2017. "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 12(1), pages 42-64, April.
    11. Zelealem Yiheyis, 2006. "The Effects of Devaluation on Aggregate Output: Empirical Evidence from Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 21-45.
    12. Mwinlaaru, Peter Yeltulme & Ofori, Isaac Kwesi, 2017. "Real exchange rate and economic growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 82405, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gil Kim & Lian An & Yoonbai Kim, 2015. "Exchange Rate, Capital Flow and Output: Developed versus Developing Economies," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 195-207, June.
    14. Kim, Yoonbai & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2007. "An empirical assessment of currency devaluation in East Asian countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-283, March.
    15. Misbah Nosheen & Beenish Chohan & Javed Iqbal & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Asymmetric response of domestic production to exchange rate changes: Evidence from southeast Asian countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 54-75, November.
    16. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:42:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2007. "Sectoral Effects Of Ringgit Depreciation Shocks," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 135-156, December.
    18. Mansor H. IBRAHIM, 2007. "The Yen‐Dollar Exchange Rate And Malaysian Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(3), pages 315-338, September.
    19. Mironov, Valeriy, 2015. "Russian devaluation in 2014–2015: Falling into the abyss or a window of opportunity?," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 217-239.
    20. Hideki Nishigaki, 2007. "The impact of the appreciation of East Asian currencies on global imbalance," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(42), pages 1-6.

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