IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v42y2015i12p2686-2693.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Test of two hypotheses explaining the size of populations in a system of cities

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolay K. Vitanov
  • Marcel Ausloos

Abstract

Two classical hypotheses are examined about the population growth in a system of cities: Hypothesis 1 pertains to Gibrat's and Zipf's theory which states that the city growth-decay process is size independent; Hypothesis 2 pertains to the so-called Yule process which states that the growth of populations in cities happens when (i) the distribution of the city population initial size obeys a log-normal function, (ii) the growth of the settlements follows a stochastic process. The basis for the test is some official data on Bulgarian cities at various times. This system was chosen because (i) Bulgaria is a country for which one does not expect biased theoretical conditions; (ii) the city populations were determined rather precisely. The present results show that: (i) the population size growth of the Bulgarian cities is size dependent, whence Hypothesis 1 is not confirmed for Bulgaria; (ii) the population size growth of Bulgarian cities can be described by a double Pareto log-normal distribution, whence Hypothesis 2 is valid for the Bulgarian city system. It is expected that this fine study brings some information and light on other usually considered to be more pertinent countries of city systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolay K. Vitanov & Marcel Ausloos, 2015. "Test of two hypotheses explaining the size of populations in a system of cities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(12), pages 2686-2693, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:12:p:2686-2693
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2015.1047744
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2015.1047744
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2015.1047744?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vitanov, Nikolay K. & Sakai, Kenshi & Jordanov, Ivan P. & Managi, Shunsuke & Demura, Katsuhiko, 2007. "Analysis of a Japan government intervention on the domestic agriculture market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 330-335.
    2. Henderson, J. Vernon, 1986. "Efficiency of resource usage and city size," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-70, January.
    3. Glaeser, Edward L., 2008. "Cities, Agglomeration, and Spatial Equilibrium," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290444.
    4. Gangopadhyay, Kausik & Basu, B., 2009. "City size distributions for India and China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(13), pages 2682-2688.
    5. Reed, William J., 2001. "The Pareto, Zipf and other power laws," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 15-19, December.
    6. Ioannides, Yannis M. & Overman, Henry G., 2003. "Zipf's law for cities: an empirical examination," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 127-137, March.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1996. "Confronting the Mystery of Urban Hierarchy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-418, December.
    8. Moura, Newton J. & Ribeiro, Marcelo B., 2006. "Zipf law for Brazilian cities," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 441-448.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ausloos, Marcel & Eskandary, Ali & Kaur, Parmjit & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2019. "Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 527(C).
    2. Vanessa Grüdtner & André M. Marques, 2020. "Is Gibrat's law robust when cities interact each other?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 1087-1111, August.
    3. Hu, Zhibin & Wu, Guangdong & Han, Yilong & Niu, Yanliang, 2023. "Unraveling the dynamic changes of high-speed rail network with urban development: Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Domínguez Jurado, José Miguel & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco & Avila-Cano, Antonio, 2021. "Firm growth in the 21st century: Does the Andalusian economy comply with Gibrat’s Law?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 577(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valente J. Matlaba & Mark J. Holmes & Philip McCann & Jacques Poot, 2013. "A Century Of The Evolution Of The Urban System In Brazil," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 129-151, November.
    2. Arshad, Sidra & Hu, Shougeng & Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2019. "Zipf’s law, the coherence of the urban system and city size distribution: Evidence from Pakistan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 87-103.
    3. Chen, Yanguang, 2012. "The rank-size scaling law and entropy-maximizing principle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 767-778.
    4. Soo, Kwok Tong, 2005. "Zipf's Law for cities: a cross-country investigation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 239-263, May.
    5. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    6. Gabaix, Xavier & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2004. "The evolution of city size distributions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 53, pages 2341-2378, Elsevier.
    7. Rafael González-Val, 2019. "US city-size distribution and space," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 283-300, July.
    8. Devadoss, Stephen & Luckstead, Jeff & Danforth, Diana & Akhundjanov, Sherzod, 2016. "The power law distribution for lower tail cities in India," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 193-196.
    9. Rafael González-Val & Arturo Ramos & Fernando Sanz-Gracia & María Vera-Cabello, 2015. "Size distributions for all cities: Which one is best?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(1), pages 177-196, March.
    10. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2014. "The Growth of Cities," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 5, pages 781-853, Elsevier.
    11. Duranton, Gilles, 2002. "City size distributions as a consequence of the growth process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20065, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Behrens, Kristian, 2007. "On the location and lock-in of cities: Geography vs transportation technology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 22-45, January.
    13. Sen, Hu & Chunxia, Yang & Xueshuai, Zhu & Zhilai, Zheng & Ya, Cao, 2015. "Distributions of region size and GDP and their relation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 46-56.
    14. Calderín-Ojeda, Enrique, 2016. "The distribution of all French communes: A composite parametric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 385-394.
    15. Hasan Engin Duran & Andrzej Cieślik, 2021. "The distribution of city sizes in Turkey: A failure of Zipf’s law due to concavity," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 1702-1719, October.
    16. Rafael González‐Val, 2019. "Historical urban growth in Europe (1300–1800)," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 1115-1136, April.
    17. Anderson, Gordon & Ge, Ying, 2005. "The size distribution of Chinese cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 756-776, November.
    18. Zhihong Chen & Shihe Fu & Dayong Zhang, 2013. "Searching for the Parallel Growth of Cities in China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(10), pages 2118-2135, August.
    19. Tomaz Ponce Dentinho, 2017. "Urban Concentration and Spatial Allocation of Rents from natural resources. A Zipf's Curve Approach," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 4, pages 77-86.
    20. Ramos, Arturo & Sanz-Gracia, Fernando & González-Val, Rafael, 2013. "A new framework for the US city size distribution: Empirical evidence and theory," MPRA Paper 52190, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:12:p:2686-2693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.