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Outside the Club: New Zealand's economic growth, 1870-1993

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  • David Greasley
  • Les Oxley

Abstract

Recent tests of the Convergence Hypothesis, or the tendency for per capita income levels to narrow over time, have included a time-series testing approach (see Bernard & Durlauf, 1995, 1996; Oxley & Greasley, 1995, Greasley & Oxley, 1997, 1998a). Results have been mixed, with Bernard & Durlauf finding no evidence of convergence whereas Oxley & Greasley find evidence of two small convergence clubs. This paper adds to the debate by considering a newly created annual per capita income series for New Zealand, 1870-1993. The results show that the series is integrated of order 1, I(1), and neither a single break nor joint breaks overturn the null of a unit root. Combined with results from Greasley & Oxley (1998a, 1998b), this property of New Zealand data is incompatible with her belonging to a UK/Australia convergence club, or converging towards either of the North American economies. New Zealand per capita income growth is idiosyncratic, diverging below the growth rates of traditional trading partners. A conjunction of small size and insular economic policies distinguishes New Zealand's economic development.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 173-192

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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:173-192

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  1. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1993. "Convergence in International Output," Working papers 93-7, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  3. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  4. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. Hawke, G R, 1975. "Income Estimation from Monetary Data: Further Explorations," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 21(3), pages 301-07, September.
  7. Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  8. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  9. Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  10. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  11. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  12. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1997. "Time-series based tests of the convergence hypothesis: Some positive results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 143-147, October.
  13. Oxley, Les & Greasley, David, 1995. "A Time-Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(214), pages 259-70, September.
  14. Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1995. "Testing for a Break in Output: New International Evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 357-62, April.
  15. Greasley, David & Oxley, Les, 1998. "Comparing British and American Economic and Industrial Performance 1860-1993: A Time Series Perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 171-195, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2013. "World Human Development: 1870-2007," CEPR Discussion Papers 9292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2001. "Convergence Clubs in Cross-Country Life Expectancy Dynamics," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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