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Defence R&D expenditure: The crowding-out hypothesis

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  • Eduardo Morales-Ramos

Abstract

The impact of defence expenditure on the economy has been widely studied through different types of models. However, the results from these studies have not reached definitive conclusions, and have left a gap in the analysis of the impact of defence R&D expenditure at the economy level. Defence R&D has specific characteristics, which lead to market failures: public good, high risk and uncertainty, national security. Also, defence R&D creates two types of externalities: negative (crowding-out), and positive (spin-off). Crowding-out is the major economic debate about defence R&D. This paper analyses the crowding-out hypothesis by applying three types of models for the UK case: supply, demand, and demand-supply models. From these three models the most reliable is chosen and applied to the individual cases of France, Germany, Japan and USA. The paper also reports the results for the pooled data of these five countries, and for four error component models. The results from estimating such models shed light on the defence R&D crowding-out hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2002)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 365-383

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:5:p:365-383

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Related research

Keywords: Crowding-out; Defence R&D Spending; Growth; Investment; Demand Models; Supply Model; Demand-supply Models; Error Component Models;

References

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  1. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  2. Joerding, Wayne, 1986. "Economic growth and defense spending : Granger Causality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-40, April.
  3. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Wallace, T D & Hussain, Ashiq, 1969. "The Use of Error Components Models in Combining Cross Section with Time Series Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 55-72, January.
  5. David Gold, 1997. "Evaluating the trade-off between military spending and investment in the United States," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 251-266.
  6. Deger, Saadet, 1986. "Economic Development and Defense Expenditure," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 179-96, October.
  7. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  8. Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
  9. James Murdoch & Chung-Ron Pi & Todd Sandler, 1997. "The impact of defense and non-defense public spending on growth in Asia and Latin America," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 205-224.
  10. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  11. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-80, January.
  12. Faini, Riccardo & Annez, Patricia & Taylor, Lance, 1984. "Defense Spending, Economic Structure, and Growth: Evidence among Countries and Over Time," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 487-98, April.
  13. Pivetti, Massimo, 1992. "Military Spending as a Burden on Growth: An 'Underconsumptionist' Critique," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 373-84, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eduardo Morales Ramos, 2004. "Country survey XIX: Mexico," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 83-99.
  2. Andrew James, 2006. "The Transatlantic Defence R&D Gap: Causes, Consequences And Controversies," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 223-238.
  3. David Popp & Richard G. Newell, 2009. "Where Does Energy R&D Come From? Examining Crowding Out from Environmentally-Friendly R&D," NBER Working Papers 15423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Fréderic Jouneau-Sion, 2011. "Wars as Large Depreciation Shocks," Working Papers 2012-30, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.

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