Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Survey of recent developments

Contents:

Author Info

  • Anton Gunawan
  • Reza Siregar

Abstract

Two major elections and the increasingly severe global financial crisis (GFC) will dominate politics and economics in Indonesia in 2009. The parliamentary election will be held in April, followed by the presidential election in July. The public is now experienced at voting, and these events are expected to be peaceful and successful. The impact of the GFC is of much greater concern. The economy continued to perform well in 2008. With quite robust economic growth, commendable progress with administrative reform in the finance ministry, and higher than expected oil prices, both tax and non-tax revenues significantly exceeded their 2008 budget targets, leaving the government with unspent funds in excess of Rp 50 trillion. The banking sector also performed well, with lending continuing to expand rapidly. However, there was a significant fall in average capital adequacy as banks took on more risky assets and wrote down their capital in response to falling bond portfolio values. Signs of economic slowdown began to emerge in the second half of 2008, however. The collapse of the global financial services firm Lehman Brothers in September sparked massive sell-offs on stock exchanges and foreign exchange markets around the world, including in Indonesia. In the fourth quarter the disruption in the global economy finally hit Indonesia's real sector. General slowdowns were felt in both the tradable and non-tradable sectors, although the quarterly data were distorted by strong seasonal effects. The robust annual growth of non-oil and gas exports over the last four years came to an abrupt end in the fourth quarter, but the same was true of imports. Thus, although the GFC and a weak rupiah are likely to have a negative impact on export-oriented and high import content industries in 2009, potential balance of payments pressures are more likely to originate in the capital account than in the current account. With a growing expectation that the GFC's impact would intensify, a wide range of fiscal, monetary, finance and trade policy packages were announced in recent months. Financial sector safety net policies were given high priority initially, with the primary aim of supporting the balance of payments rather than avoiding worker lay-offs. Subsequently, fiscal stimulus packages have been introduced, expanded and modified, and the official stance of monetary policy has become more expansionary. However, institutional shortcomings and political bottlenecks seem likely to constrain the effectiveness of these policies as a whole.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00074910902836148
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 45 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 9-38

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:45:y:2009:i:1:p:9-38

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CBIE20

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:45:y:2009:i:1:p:9-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.