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Does one size fit all? A Taylor-rule based analysis of monetary policy for current and future EMU members

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  • C. Moons
  • A. Van Poeck

Abstract

This article uses the Taylor rule to examine the appropriateness of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate policy for the initial European Monetary Union (EMU) members and the 10 new EMU member states some of whom are expected to join the Eurozone in 2006-2007. Specifically it addresses three questions. (1) Are there differences between the interest rate aggregated from the Taylor interest rates of individual member states in the euro area and the interest rate set by the ECB? (2) For which countries do the desired interest rates according to the original Taylor rule and the interest rate of the euro area differ most and in which respect? (3) The last question is whether the interest rate gaps change over time. We find that the ECB's policy does not fit individual EMU members equally well and this result is unlikely to be changed with the addition of the 10 new members, which will have only a marginal effect on the ECB interest rate stance.

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  • C. Moons & A. Van Poeck, 2007. "Does one size fit all? A Taylor-rule based analysis of monetary policy for current and future EMU members," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 193-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2007:i:2:p:193-199
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600749763
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    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Stephan Sauer & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand ECB Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 1110, CESifo.
    3. Clausen, Volker & Hayo, Bernd, 2002. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from the first years," ZEI Working Papers B 09-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
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    1. Jürgen Jerger & Oke Röhe, 2009. "Testing for Parameter Stability in DSGE Models. The Cases of France, Germany and Spain," Working Papers 276, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies), revised Mar 2011.
    2. Moons, Cindy & Hellinckx, Kevin, 2019. "Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 294-315.
    3. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    4. Kleczka, Mitja, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Secular Stagnation at the Zero Lower Bound. A View on the Eurozone," MPRA Paper 67228, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Regős, Gábor, 2013. "Kockázattal kiegészített Taylor-szabályok becslése Magyarországra [Estimation of risk-augmented Taylor rules for Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 670-702.
    6. David-Jan Jansen & Jakob De Haan, 2009. "Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 1995-2003.
    7. Mogaji, Peter Kehinde, 2015. "Policy Rule-based Stress Tests of Monetary Integration and Single Monetary Policy in the West African Monetary Zone," MPRA Paper 86720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Frömmel, Michael & Garabedian, Garo & Schobert, Franziska, 2011. "Monetary policy rules in Central and Eastern European Countries: Does the exchange rate matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 807-818.
    9. Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth & Eva Horváthová, 2010. "Corporate Interest Rates and the Financial Accelerator in the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 41-54, January.
    10. VAN POECK, André, 2009. "One money and fifteen needs inflation and output convergence in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2009001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    11. Damian, Monica, 2011. "Implicații ale pierderii autonomiei politicii monetare asupra procesului inflaționist," MPRA Paper 35061, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Apostolakis, Georgios N. & Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2019. "Financial stress and asymmetric shocks transmission within the Eurozone. How fragile is the common monetary policy?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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