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An empirical study of the foreign trade balance in China

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  • Wei Weixian

Abstract

The objective of this letter is to investigate the dynamic relationship between China's trade balance (T) and macroeconomic variables: domestic and foreign output (Y and Y*), real exchange rate (E), domestic and foreign money supply (M and M*). The ADF unit root results show that the variables are all integrated of order I(1). The trade balance in China is not cointegrated with a number of variables, including the exchange rate. Absorption, elasticity, and monetary models are compared, and the elastic model performs better. There has been J-curve in China, and the devaluations have had significant effect on the trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Weixian, 1999. "An empirical study of the foreign trade balance in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(8), pages 485-490.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:6:y:1999:i:8:p:485-490
    DOI: 10.1080/135048599352781
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2013. "The J-Curve and Japan--China commodity trade," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 13-28, February.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    3. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang & Mary Edwards, 2008. "Does an Undervalued Currency Promote Growth? Evidence from China," Working Papers 2008-2 Classification- F3, Saint Cloud State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2010. "The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9), pages 1067-1076.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2019. "An asymmetric analysis of the J‐curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 2854-2899, October.
    6. Thanh, Su Dinh & Canh, Nguyen Phuc & Doytch, Nadia, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of U.S. monetary policy on the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China: A Markov switching ARDL model approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rajarshi Mitra, 2010. "How sensitive is commodity trade flows between US and India to currency depreciation?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 267-277.
    8. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "China’s trade in services and role of the exchange rate: An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 747-757.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "United States‐China Trade At The Commodity Level And The Yuan‐Dollar Exchange Rate," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(3), pages 341-361, July.
    10. Khim-sen Liew & Kian-Ping Lim & Huzaimi Hussain, 2003. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries," International Trade 0307003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October.
    12. Yongqing Wang & Guanghua Wan, 2008. "China's Trade Imbalances: The Role of FDI," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-103, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2022. "On the link between Chinese currency and its inpayments from and outpayments to trading partners: an asymmetric analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 335-359, February.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.
    15. Wong Hock Tsen, 2006. "Granger causality tests among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952-1999," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302.
    16. Wong Hock Tsen, 2010. "Exports, Domestic Demand, and Economic Growth in China: Granger Causality Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(s1), pages 625-639, August.
    17. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2018. "Asymmetric Cointegration, Nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A Bilateral Analysis of China and Its 21 Trading Partners," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 3131-3151, October.
    19. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.

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