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Comparing the employment-output elasticities of migrants and nationals: the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council

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  • Alberto Behar

Abstract

Many countries have large or increasing migrant populations. We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to nonoil GDP for nationals and migrants using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. We use data from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have a particularly large share of foreign workers. Our results indicate that the employment response is statistically significantly lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7, than for migrants, where the short- and long-run elasticities are 0.35 and almost unity. Lower elasticities could signal higher labour market adjustment costs. In the context of low oil prices, forecasts imply a significant jobs shortfall for nationals in the coming years.

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  • Alberto Behar, 2017. "Comparing the employment-output elasticities of migrants and nationals: the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 703-707, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:10:p:703-707
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1223806
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Gorg & Cecilia Hornok & Catia Montagna & George E. Onwordi, 2020. "Employment to output elasticities and reforms towards flexicurity: Evidence from OECD Countries," Discussion Papers 2020-24, University of Nottingham, GEP.

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