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Early warning indicator for financial crashes using the log periodic power law

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  • Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim

Abstract

In this article, we apply the Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL), introduced by Johansen et al. (2000), for capturing the recent stock market crash in the German stock index (Deutscher Aktien Index, DAX). The contribution of this article consists not only in describing the historical crash by the LPPL, but also in demonstrating how the LPPL can be used as an early warning indicator for financial crashes.

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  • Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim, 2012. "Early warning indicator for financial crashes using the log periodic power law," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(15), pages 1465-1469, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:15:p:1465-1469
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.633885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 2002. "Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0210509, arXiv.org.
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    4. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
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    7. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel T. Pele, 2012. "An Lppl Algorithm For Estimating The Critical Time Of A Stock Market Bubble," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 14-22, DECEMBER.
    2. Pele, Daniel Traian & Mazurencu-Marinescu-Pele, Miruna, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies, Metcalfe's law and LPPL models," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-056, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    3. Min Shu & Ruiqiang Song & Wei Zhu, 2021. "The 2021 Bitcoin Bubbles and Crashes—Detection and Classification," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Hanwool Jang & Yena Song & Sungbin Sohn & Kwangwon Ahn, 2018. "Real Estate Soars and Financial Crises: Recent Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Daniel Traian Pele & Miruna Mazurencu-Marinescu & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Herding Behaviour, Bubbles and Log Periodic Power Laws in Illiquid Stock Markets. A Case Study on the Bucharest Stock Exchange," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-109/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. John Fry & McMillan David, 2015. "Stochastic modelling for financial bubbles and policy," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1002152-100, December.
    7. John Fry, 2014. "Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 87(1), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    9. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.

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