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The Fisher Effect revisited through an efficient non linear unit root testing procedure

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  • Nicolas Million

Abstract

As the Fisher Effect is either rejected or accepted without a real consensus in empirical studies, it is interesting to test for a unit root in a local-to-unity framework. Moreover, given the inflation expectation behaviour before and after 1979, we shall let a shift occur at a significant time break of our sample, so as to deal with potential non stationarity in the real interest rates series, instead of using Markov switching regimes models. The main innovation is to rely on structural breaks in the deterministic part while combining this method with an efficient unit root test. Empirical results reject a stochastic trend for the US short-term real interest rate from 1951 to 2000. This is consistent with an ex ante real rate constant over time.

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  • Nicolas Million, 2003. "The Fisher Effect revisited through an efficient non linear unit root testing procedure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 951-954.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:10:y:2003:i:15:p:951-954
    DOI: 10.1080/1350485032000164053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yifei Cai, 2018. "Testing the Fisher Effect in the US," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1014-1027.
    2. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    3. Million, Nicolas, 2004. "Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1051-1064, December.
    4. Holmes, Mark J. & Dutu, Richard & Cui, Xiaoman, 2009. "Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 351-360, March.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2011. "An application of a new seasonal unit root test to inflation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 707-716, October.
    6. Nicolas Million, 2006. "Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain," Post-Print halshs-00119051, HAL.

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