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The accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts in Thailand and their relationships with stock market valuation

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  • Ravi Lonkani
  • Michael Firth

Abstract

In order to help reduce information asymmetry between managers and prospective investors, IPO prospectuses in Thailand are required to publish managers' forecasts of the forthcoming year's earnings. This type of direct disclosure is especially important in a developing economy such as Thailand where financial intermediaries and information vendors are relatively sparse, and where investors are rarely professionals. Our results demonstrate that managers' earnings forecasts are much more accurate than extrapolations of historical earnings. We show that forecast accuracy is related to underpricing, and it has a directional, but not statistical, association with one-year stock returns and one-year wealth relatives.

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  • Ravi Lonkani & Michael Firth, 2005. "The accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts in Thailand and their relationships with stock market valuation," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-286.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:acctbr:v:35:y:2005:i:3:p:269-286
    DOI: 10.1080/00014788.2005.9729991
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    Cited by:

    1. Denis Cormier & Daniel Coulombe & Luania Gomez Gutierrez & Bruce J. Mcconomy, 2018. "Firms in Transition: A Review of the Venture Capital, IPO, and M&A Literature," Accounting Perspectives, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 9-88, March.
    2. Kanis Saengchote & Jananya Sthienchoak, 2020. "Mutual Fund Participation in IPOs: Thai Evidence," PIER Discussion Papers 131, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Sosnowski Tomasz & Wawryszuk-Misztal Anna, 2019. "Board characteristics and earnings forecasts accuracy in IPO prospectuses," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(1), pages 25-39, March.
    4. Chorruk, Jirapun & Worthington, Andrew C., 2010. "New evidence on the pricing and performance of initial public offerings in Thailand, 1997-2008," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 285-299, September.
    5. Sun, Jerry & Liu, Guoping, 2009. "The impact of the CSRC Regulation No. 12-1996 on the credibility of Chinese IPO earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 165-179.
    6. Saengchote, Kanis & Sthienchoak, Jananya, 2020. "Strategic participation in IPOs by affiliated mutual funds: Thai evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Weetman, Pauline, 2006. "Discovering the ‘international’ in accounting and finance," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 351-370.
    8. Georgakopoulos, Georgios & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Huang, Chen & Patsika, Victoria, 2022. "The impact of IFRS adoption on IPOs management earnings forecasts in Australia," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Li Chen & David Hay & Jingyuan Zhuang, 2020. "Initial public offering prospectus forecast errors and mandatory explanations: evidence from New Zealand," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2167-2202, September.
    10. Dimitrios Gounopoulos, 2011. "Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-272, September.
    11. McGuinness, Paul B., 2016. "Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    12. Andrew C. Worthington & Jirapun Chorruk, 2009. "The Pricing and Performance of IPOs for Small-and-medium-sized Enterprises: Emerging Market Evidence," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:200912, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    13. Tomasz Sosnowski & Anna Wawryszuk-Misztal, 2019. "Diversity on management and supervisory board and accuracy of management earnings forecasts in IPO prospectuses," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 18(3), pages 347-363, September.
    14. Anis Mnif, 2009. "Corporate Governance And Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French Ipos," Post-Print halshs-00459171, HAL.
    15. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.

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