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Transatlantischer Handelskonflikt und die deutsche Wirtschaft: Auf die Dauer kommt es an
[The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes]

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dullien

    (Inst. f. Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturf. (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Inst. f. Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturf. (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Inst. f. Makroökonomie u. Konjunkturf. (IMK))

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Auch in der Corona-Krise schwelen internationale Handelskonflikte weiter. So verschärfte die US-Regierung Mitte Mai 2020, mitten in der Corona-Krise, noch einmal die Exportbeschränkungen für Zulieferer des chinesischen Telekommunikationsausrüsters Huawei. Angesichts des dramatischen Nachfrageeinbruchs bei den Automobilherstellern kann deshalb auch nicht ausgeschlossen werden, dass Donald Trump seine protektionistische Idee, die Einfuhr von Autos und Autoteilen aus der EU mit Strafzöllen zu belegen, wiederbeleben und damit auch den transatlantischen Handelskonflikt neu anfachen könnte. Simulationen zeigen, dass ein solcher Konflikt insbesondere bei einer Ausweitung der Zölle auf weitere Sektoren und einer längeren Dauer der deutschen Wirtschaft spürbaren Schaden zufügen könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald, 2020. "Transatlantischer Handelskonflikt und die deutsche Wirtschaft: Auf die Dauer kommt es an [The Transatlantic Trade Conflict and the German Economy: It Matters how Long It Takes]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 524-530, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:100:y:2020:i:7:d:10.1007_s10273-020-2694-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-020-2694-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Redding, Stephen & Amiti, Mary & Weinstein, David, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 13564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Dullien & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2021. "Die Erholung nachhaltig gestalten: Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2021," IMK Report 164-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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