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Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Lewis

    (Griffith University)

  • James Montgomery

    (University of Tasmania)

  • Max Lewis

    (Bond University)

  • Marcus Randall

    (Bond University)

  • Karin Schiller

    (Bond University)

Abstract

Climate change is impacting people’s lives, with management of water resources and food security being major concerns for the future of many countries. In this paper, future water availability, crop water needs, yields, market costs and returns of current crops in a case study area in Australia are evaluated under future climatic conditions. The predictive methods on which the work is based have the advantage of being robust—they are able to simultaneously consider many climate change models—giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to adapt to future conditions and deliver climate-smart agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Lewis & James Montgomery & Max Lewis & Marcus Randall & Karin Schiller, 2023. "Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2721-2735, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03472-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03472-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khan, Shahbaz & Tariq, Rana & Yuanlai, Cui & Blackwell, J., 2006. "Can irrigation be sustainable?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(1-3), pages 87-99, February.
    2. Randall, M. & Montgomery, J. & Lewis, A., 2022. "Robust temporal optimisation for a crop planning problem under climate change uncertainty," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. G. P. Tsakiris & D. P. Loucks, 2023. "Adaptive Water Resources Management Under Climate Change: An Introduction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2221-2233, May.

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