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Multiple Model Predictive Flood Control in Regulated River Systems with Uncertain Inflows

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  • Dilini Delgoda
  • Syed Saleem
  • Malka Halgamuge
  • Hector Malano

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to real time automatic flood control in a managed river network that is subject to uncertain inflows. The proposed approach uses multiple models to represent inflows ranging from low to high flow. Optimal model selection is achieved in a minimum mean square error sense using a bank of Kalman filters to identify the most likely inflow characteristic. There are no a-priori probabilities assigned to the individual models. Model Predictive Control is used for water level controller design. Our Adaptive Multi Model Predictive Control (AMMPC) method is proposed as an alternative to existing techniques that also use multiple inflow models but with a-priori inflow model probabilities, either weighted or equally likely. The performance of the approach is demonstrated using a simulated river-reservoir model as well as using data collected at the Wivenhoe Dam during the 2011 floods in Queensland, Australia. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Dilini Delgoda & Syed Saleem & Malka Halgamuge & Hector Malano, 2013. "Multiple Model Predictive Flood Control in Regulated River Systems with Uncertain Inflows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(3), pages 765-790, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:3:p:765-790
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0214-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chun-Tian Cheng & Wen-Chuan Wang & Dong-Mei Xu & K. Chau, 2008. "Optimizing Hydropower Reservoir Operation Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Chaos," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(7), pages 895-909, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Po-Kuan Chiang & Patrick Willems, 2015. "Combine Evolutionary Optimization with Model Predictive Control in Real-time Flood Control of a River System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2527-2542, June.
    2. Xuemin Wang & Jianzhong Zhou & Shuo Ouyang & Chunlong Li, 2014. "Research on Joint Impoundment Dispatching Model for Cascade Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5527-5542, December.
    3. Y. Liu & C. Cheng, 2014. "A Solution for Flood Control in Urban Area: Using Street Block and Raft Foundation Space Operation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 4985-4998, November.
    4. Guangming Yu & Sa Wang & Qiwu Yu & Lei Wu & Yong Fan & Xiaoli He & Xia Zhou & Huanhuan Jia & Shu Zhang & Xiaojuan Tian, 2014. "The Regional Limit of Flood-Bearing Capability: A Theoretical Model and Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(7), pages 1921-1936, May.
    5. P. Velarde & X. Tian & A. D. Sadowska & J. M. Maestre, 2019. "Scenario-Based Hierarchical and Distributed MPC for Water Resources Management with Dynamical Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 677-696, January.
    6. Po-Kuan Chiang & Patrick Willems, 2013. "Model Conceptualization Procedure for River (Flood) Hydraulic Computations: Case Study of the Demer River, Belgium," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4277-4289, September.
    7. José V. Aguilar & Pedro Langarita & José Rodellar & Lorenzo Linares & Klaudia Horváth, 2016. "Predictive control of irrigation canals – robust design and real-time implementation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3829-3843, September.
    8. Xingqi Zhang & Maochuan Hu, 2014. "Effectiveness of Rainwater Harvesting in Runoff Volume Reduction in a Planned Industrial Park, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 671-682, February.

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