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Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
R. Winkler
Javier Muñoz
José Cervera
José Bernardo
Gail Blattenberger
Joseph Kadane
Dennis Lindley
Allan Murphy
Robert Oliver
David Ríos-Insua
Abstract

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02562681
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Test.

Volume (Year): 5 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 1-60
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:5:y:1996:i:1:p:1-60

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=120411

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Related research
Keywords: Attributes of “Good” probabilities; Decomposition of expected Scores; Evaluation of Probabilities; Probability Assessment; Probability Forecasts; Scoring Rules;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James Berger & Elías Moreno & Luis Pericchi & M. Bayarri & José Bernardo & Juan Cano & Julián Horra & Jacinto Martín & David Ríos-Insúa & Bruno Betrò & A. Dasgupta & Paul Gustafson & Larry Wass, 1994. "An overview of robust Bayesian analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-124, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Harsanyi, John C, 1995. "Games with Incomplete Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 291-303, June.
    Other versions:
  5. Yates, J. Frank, 1988. "Analyzing the accuracy of probability judgments for multiple events: An extension of the covariance decomposition," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 281-299, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Murphy, Allan H. & Winkler, Robert L., 1992. "Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 435-455, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blattenberger, Gail & Lad, Frank, 1988. "An Application of Operational-Subjective Statistical Methods to Rational Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(4), pages 453-64, October.
  8. Blattenberger, Gail, 1996. "Money Demand Revisited: An Operational Subjective Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 153-68, March-Apr. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Emir Shuford & Arthur Albert & H. Edward Massengill, 1966. "Admissible probability measurement procedures," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 125-145, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Joseph Kadane & Javier Girón & Daniel Peña & Peter Fishburn & Simon French & D. Lindley & Giovanni Parmigiani & Robert Winkler, 1993. "Several Bayesians: A review," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Johnstone, 2007. "Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 47-96, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. André Güttler, 2005. "Using a Bootstrap Approach to Rate the Raters," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 277-295, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tilmann Gneiting & Larissa Stanberry & Eric Grimit & Leonhard Held & Nicholas Johnson, 2008. "Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 211-235, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Victor Jose, 2009. "A Characterization for the Spherical Scoring Rule," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 263-281, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. D. Johnstone, 2007. "The Value of a Probability Forecast from Portfolio Theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 153-203, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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