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Models for Predicting Prices in the Moscow Residential Real Estate Market

Author

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  • V. A. Salnikov

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • O. M. Mikheeva

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The paper presents the results of modeling the pricing mechanism in the residential real estate market (by using Moscow as an example). The key factors that influence the monthly and annual dynamics of real estate prices are revealed; their quantitative impact is assessed using regression analysis methods. The close dependence of the real estate price on the change in the US dollar-ruble exchange rate in a monthly model with a distributed lag is revealed. In the annual model, the best explanatory force is possessed by factors such as the dynamics of the Urals oil prices and the change in the average cost of basic materials, parts, and structures purchased by construction companies in the current year. The study also proposes a new indicator, which, is believed by the authors to approximate the change in the propensity to save in high-income groups of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • V. A. Salnikov & O. M. Mikheeva, 2018. "Models for Predicting Prices in the Moscow Residential Real Estate Market," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 94-101, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:29:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700718010136
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700718010136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
    2. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2011. "Shifting credit standards and the boom and bust in U.S. house prices," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58533, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Jian Zhou, 2010. "Testing for Cointegration between House Prices and Economic Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 599-632, Winter.
    5. Vahram Stepanyan & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Aidyn Bibolov, 2010. "House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 2010/104, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Galina An & Charles Becker & Enoch Cheng, 2021. "Bubbling Away: Forecasting Real Estate Prices, Rents, and Bubbles in a Transition Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 263-317, June.

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