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A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic

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  • Hana Hejlová
  • Michal Hlaváček
  • Luboš Komárek

Abstract

The article describes approach proposed for the house price equilibrium assessment in the Czech Republic. It first explains why it is necessary to use multiple models simultaneously to correctly assess house price sustainability. It goes on to describe individual models proposed to estimate house price misalignment in the Czech Republic. Results given by these individual models are consonant in identifying periods of over- and undervaluation of house prices but slightly differ in the amplitude of the gaps. A method for aggregating the estimates produced by those approaches is then presented. It works on the premise that more correlated estimates may be evidence of a strong signal, while less correlated estimates may, on the other hand, bring additional information to the house price assessment. By using two sets of weights, it presents an interval of supposed under- or overvaluation of house prices. This method indicates that Czech house prices were roughly at their equilibrium level in mid-2014 following an extended period of slight undervaluation since the mid-2009. It also proves robust to the length of the sample used.

Suggested Citation

  • Hana Hejlová & Michal Hlaváček & Luboš Komárek, 2017. "A Comprehensive Method for House Price Sustainability Assessment in the Czech Republic," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(3), pages 269-285.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:3:id:613:p:269-285
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.613
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    Cited by:

    1. Karmelavičius, Jaunius & Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau, Ieva & Petrokaitė, Austėja Petrokaitė, 2022. "Housing and credit misalignments in a two-market disequilibrium framework," ESRB Working Paper Series 135, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Libor Votava & Lenka Komárková & Jiří Dvořák, 2021. "Determinanty poptávky a nabídky na trhu s byty a jejich význam pro vysvětlení regionálních rozdílů [Demand and Supply Determinants on the Property Market and Their Importance in Explaining Regional," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(1), pages 26-47.
    3. Michal Franta & Tibor Hledik & Jan Vlcek & Michal Dvorak & Zlatuse Komarkova & Adam Kucera & Vaclav Broz & Michal Hlavacek, 2018. "Interest Rates," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 16, number rb16/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Volha Audzei, January.
    4. Martin Cesnak & Jan Klacso, 2021. "Assessing real estate prices in Slovakia - a structural approach," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2021, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Vaclav Broz & Dominika Kolcunova & Simona Malovana & Lukas Pfeifer, 2018. "Risk-Sensitive Capital Regulation," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 16, number rb16/1 edited by Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house price; multiple models; Czech Republic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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