IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v100y2020i2d10.1007_s11069-019-03822-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Moses A. Ojara

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Uganda National Meteorological Authority)

  • Yunsheng Lou

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Lawrence Aribo

    (Uganda National Meteorological Authority)

  • Silvia Namumbya

    (Uganda National Meteorological Authority)

  • Md. Jalal Uddin

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

Abstract

The economy of Uganda depends heavily on rainfed agriculture. In this study, daily observed rainfall datasets from 9 weather stations with length varying within 1955 and 2017 were used to generate the probability of rainfall and dry spells occurrence using a Markov chain approach. The length of the maximum dry spell was obtained using the direct method based on the definition of a dry day that rainfall is less than 0.85 mm (R

Suggested Citation

  • Moses A. Ojara & Yunsheng Lou & Lawrence Aribo & Silvia Namumbya & Md. Jalal Uddin, 2020. "Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 493-514, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03822-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03822-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rockstr m, J. & Barron, J. & Fox, P., 2003. "Water productivity in rain-fed agriculture: challenges and opportunities for smallholder farmers in drought-prone tropical agroecosystems," IWMI Books, Reports H032640, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Seung-Ki Min & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2011. "Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 378-381, February.
    3. Nicholas Kilimani, 2015. "Vulnerability to Climatic Variability: An Assessment of Drought Prevalence on Water Resources Availability and Implications for the Ugandan Economy," Working Papers 201562, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. David I Stern & Peter W Gething & Caroline W Kabaria & William H Temperley & Abdisalan M Noor & Emelda A Okiro & G Dennis Shanks & Robert W Snow & Simon I Hay, 2011. "Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-9, September.
    5. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    6. Siderius, C. & Van Walsum, P.E.V. & Roest, C.W.J. & Smit, A.A.M.F.R. & Hellegers, P.J.G.J. & Kabat, P. & Van Ierland, E.C., 2016. "The role of rainfed agriculture in securing food production in the Nile Basin," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 14-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moses A. Ojara & Lou Yunsheng & Hassen Babaousmail & Peter Wasswa, 2021. "Trends and zonal variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa during 1960–2017," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 33-61, October.
    2. Lamek Nahayo & Cui Peng & Yu Lei & Rongzhi Tan, 2023. "Spatial understanding of historical and future landslide variation in Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 613-641, October.
    3. Zekai Şen & Eyüp Şişman & Ismail Dabanli, 2020. "Wet and dry spell feature charts for practical uses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 1975-1986, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kanitkar, Tejal, 2014. "Climate Change and Food Production Systems," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 4(1), July.
    2. Genesis T. Yengoh, 2012. "Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Findlay, Christopher & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia, 2020. "Management adaptation to flood in Guangdong Province in China: Do property rights Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Davor Kvočka & Roger A. Falconer & Michaela Bray, 2016. "Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1569-1599, December.
    5. Giuseppe Maggio & Marina Mastrorillo & Nicholas J. Sitko, 2022. "Adapting to High Temperatures: Effect of Farm Practices and Their Adoption Duration on Total Value of Crop Production in Uganda," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(1), pages 385-403, January.
    6. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    7. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    8. Seydou Zakari & Germaine Ibro & Bokar Moussa & Tahirou Abdoulaye, 2022. "Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Impacts on Household Income and Food Security: Evidence from Sahelian Region of Niger," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    9. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    10. Rei Itsukushima & Yohei Ogahara & Yuki Iwanaga & Tatsuro Sato, 2018. "Investigating the Influence of Various Stormwater Runoff Control Facilities on Runoff Control Efficiency in a Small Catchment Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-12, February.
    11. Vermaak, Herman Jacobus & Kusakana, Kanzumba & Koko, Sandile Philip, 2014. "Status of micro-hydrokinetic river technology in rural applications: A review of literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 625-633.
    12. Yaolong Liu & Guorui Feng & Ye Xue & Huaming Zhang & Ruoguang Wang, 2015. "Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2167-2183, February.
    13. Islam, Moinul & Kotani, Koji & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Climate perception and flood mitigation cooperation: A Bangladesh case study," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 117-133.
    14. Kwasi, Frimpong & Oosthuizen, Jacque & Etten, Eddie Van, 2014. "The Extent of Heat on Health and Sustainable Farming in Ghana –Bawku East," Sustainable Agriculture Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 3(3).
    15. Simon Tilleard & James Ford, 2016. "Adaptation readiness and adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 575-591, August.
    16. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    17. Tanimonure, Victoria Adeyemi, 2021. "Impact of Climate Adaptation Strategies on the Net Farm Revenue of Underutilized Indigenous Vegetables’ (UIVs) Production in Southwest Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315903, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Possenti, Silvia., 2012. "Rural development strategies as a path to decent work and reducing urban informal employment : the case of South Africa," ILO Working Papers 994790883402676, International Labour Organization.
    19. Sam Barrett, 2015. "Subnational Adaptation Finance Allocation: Comparing Decentralized and Devolved Political Institutions in Kenya," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 15(3), pages 118-139, August.
    20. Bishu, Kinfe & O'Reilly, Seamus & Lahiff, Edward & Steiner, Bodo, 2016. "Cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies," MPRA Paper 74954, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03822-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.