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Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa

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  • David I Stern
  • Peter W Gething
  • Caroline W Kabaria
  • William H Temperley
  • Abdisalan M Noor
  • Emelda A Okiro
  • G Dennis Shanks
  • Robert W Snow
  • Simon I Hay

Abstract

There has been considerable debate on the existence of trends in climate in the highlands of East Africa and hypotheses about their potential effect on the trends in malaria in the region. We apply a new robust trend test to mean temperature time series data from three editions of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit database (CRU TS) for several relevant locations. We find significant trends in the data extracted from newer editions of the database but not in the older version for periods ending in 1996. The trends in the newer data are even more significant when post-1996 data are added to the samples. We also test for trends in the data from the Kericho meteorological station prepared by Omumbo et al. We find no significant trend in the 1979-1995 period but a highly significant trend in the full 1979-2009 sample. However, although the malaria cases observed at Kericho, Kenya rose during a period of resurgent epidemics (1994-2002) they have since returned to a low level. A large assembly of parasite rate surveys from the region, stratified by altitude, show that this decrease in malaria prevalence is not limited to Kericho.

Suggested Citation

  • David I Stern & Peter W Gething & Caroline W Kabaria & William H Temperley & Abdisalan M Noor & Emelda A Okiro & G Dennis Shanks & Robert W Snow & Simon I Hay, 2011. "Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-9, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0024524
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024524
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter W. Gething & David L. Smith & Anand P. Patil & Andrew J. Tatem & Robert W. Snow & Simon I. Hay, 2010. "Climate change and the global malaria recession," Nature, Nature, vol. 465(7296), pages 342-345, May.
    2. Simon I. Hay & Jonathan Cox & David J. Rogers & Sarah E. Randolph & David I. Stern & G. Dennis Shanks & Monica F. Myers & Robert W. Snow, 2002. "Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6874), pages 905-909, February.
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    1. Bratti, Massimiliano & Frimpong, Prince Boakye & Russo, Simone, 2021. "Prenatal Exposure to Heat Waves and Child Health in Sub-saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 14424, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Jenna Scully & Emilie Mosnier & Aurel Carbunar & Emmanuel Roux & Félix Djossou & Nicolas Garçeran & Lise Musset & Alice Sanna & Magalie Demar & Mathieu Nacher & Jean Gaudart, 2021. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in French Guiana: 2005–2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Maud Huynen & Pim Martens & Su-Mia Akin, 2013. "Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 15(6), pages 1425-1442, December.
    4. Krijn Paaijmans & Justine Blanford & Robert Crane & Michael Mann & Liang Ning & Kathleen Schreiber & Matthew Thomas, 2014. "Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 479-488, August.
    5. Moses A. Ojara & Yunsheng Lou & Lawrence Aribo & Silvia Namumbya & Md. Jalal Uddin, 2020. "Dry spells and probability of rainfall occurrence for Lake Kyoga Basin in Uganda, East Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 493-514, January.
    6. Isaac Kwesi Nooni & Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan & Guojie Wang & Waheed Ullah & Jiao Lu & Shijie Li & Mawuli Dzakpasu & Nana Agyemang Prempeh & Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, 2021. "Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.

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