IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joprea/v34y2017i1d10.1007_s12546-016-9175-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041

Author

Listed:
  • Nico Keilman

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Probabilistic household forecasts to 2041 are presented for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands. Future trends in fertility, mortality and international migration are taken from official population forecasts. Time series of shares of the population in six different household positions are modelled as random walks with drift. Brass’ relational model preserves the age patterns of the household shares. Probabilistic forecasts for households are computed by combining predictive distributions for the household shares with predictive distributions of the populations, specific for age and sex. If current trends in the three countries continue, we will witness a development towards more and smaller households, often driven by increasing numbers of persons who live alone. We can be quite certain that by 2041, there will be between two and four times as many persons aged 80 and over who live alone when compared with the situation in 2011.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Keilman, 2017. "A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 17-43, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:34:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12546-016-9175-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacobsen, Rasmus Højbjerg & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2014. "Future changes in age and household patterns: Some implications for public finances," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1110-1119.
    2. Jordan D. Matsudaira, 2016. "Economic conditions and the living arrangements of young adults: 1960 to 2011," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 167-195, January.
    3. Harry Haupt & Walter Oberhofer & Thomas Reichsthaler, 2003. "A Varying-Coefficient Approach To Estimation And Extrapolation Of Household Size," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 249-273.
    4. Keilman, Nico, 2016. "Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 726-735.
    5. Jordan Matsudaira, 2016. "Economic conditions and the living arrangements of young adults: 1960 to 2011," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 167-195, January.
    6. Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
    7. Tom Wilson, 2013. "The sequential propensity household projection model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(24), pages 681-712.
    8. Solveig Christiansen & Nico Keilman, 2013. "Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(43), pages 1263-1302.
    9. Maarten Alders & Nico Keilman & Harri Cruijsen, 2007. "Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 33-69, March.
    10. Juha Alho & Nico Keilman, 2010. "On future household structure," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(1), pages 117-143, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Urszula Ala-Karvia & Marta Hozer-Koćmiel & Sandra Misiak-Kwit & Barbara Staszko, 2018. "Is Poland Becoming Nordic? Changing Trends In Household Structures In Poland And Finland With The Emphasis On People Living Alone," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 725-742, December.
    2. Christopoulou, Rebekka & Pantalidou, Maria, 2022. "The parental home as labor market insurance for young Greeks during the Great Recession," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 313-350, September.
    3. Hippolyte d'Albis & Karina Doorley & Elena Stancanelli, 2021. "Older mothers' employment and marriage stability when the nest is empty," PSE Working Papers halshs-03203063, HAL.
    4. Albanesi, Stefania & Gihleb, Rania & Zhang, Ning, 2022. "Boomerang College Kids: Unemployment, Job Mismatch and Coresidence," IZA Discussion Papers 15507, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Adriana M. Reyes, 2022. "Race and Ethnic Differences in Financial Dependency of Coresident Young Adults During Economic Recessions and Over Time," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 51-65, March.
    6. Solveig Christiansen & Nico Keilman, 2013. "Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(43), pages 1263-1302.
    7. Katharine L. Shester & Samuel K. Allen & Christopher Handy, 2019. "Concrete measures: the rise of public housing and changes in young single motherhood in the U.S," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 369-418, April.
    8. Rebekka Christopoulou & Maria Pantalidou, 2017. "The parental home as labor market insurance for young Greeks during the crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2017_10, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Oct 2017.
    9. Rebekka Christopoulou & Maria Pantalidou, 2018. "Who saved Greek youth? Parental support to young adults during the great recession," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 129, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    10. Gihleb, Rania & Giuntella, Osea & Lonsky, Jakub, 2023. "Dreaming of leaving the nest? Immigration status and the living arrangements of DACAmented," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Cintya Lanchimba & Joselyn Quisnancela & Yasmín Salazar Méndez, 2020. "The choice of elderly labor: Evidence from Ecuador," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 35(1), pages 75-97, April.
    12. Dettling, Lisa J. & Hsu, Joanne W., 2018. "Returning to the nest: Debt and parental co-residence among young adults," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 225-236.
    13. Virginia Wilcox & Herman Sahni, 2023. "The Effects on Labor Supply of Living with Older Family Members Needing Assistance with Activities of Daily Living," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 900-918, December.
    14. Rasmus Højbjerg Jacobsen & Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, 2014. "Changing Age and Household Patterns: Implications for Welfare Costs in Denmark 1982 – 2007," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 39, pages 1-4.
    15. Sara Ayllón & Natalia Nollenberger, 2021. "The Unequal Opportunity For Skills Acquisition During The Great Recession In Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(2), pages 289-316, June.
    16. Bubonya, Melisa & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A., 2021. "Pathways of Disadvantage: Unpacking the Intergenerational Correlation in Welfare," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Chuanchuan Zhang, 2019. "Family support or social support? The role of clan culture," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(2), pages 529-549, April.
    18. Cooper, Daniel & Luengo-Prado, María José, 2018. "Household formation over time: Evidence from two cohorts of young adults," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 106-123.
    19. Qiushi Feng & Zhenglian Wang & Simon Choi & Yi Zeng, 2020. "Forecast Households at the County Level: An Application of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Method in Six Counties of Southern California, 2010 to 2040," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 253-281, April.
    20. Begley, Jaclene & Chan, Sewin, 2022. "Next to kin: How children influence the residential mobility decisions of older adults," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:34:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s12546-016-9175-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.