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A turning point in Italian fertility

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  • Marcantonio Caltabiano

    (Università di Messina)

Abstract

The second half of the 1990s was a turning point in Italian fertility: the postponement of births slowed and there was an increasing tendency to recover fertility after the age of 30. To study the determinants of this change, we employ individual-level data from the 2003 survey Family and Social Subjects, held by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. We focus on first births, analyzing the key role of education as a driving force both of postponement and then recovery, controlling also for relevant characteristics such as women’s employment status and family background. We estimate a probit model for postponement and an event history analysis model for recovery, thus offering a picture of both processes. Our findings indicate that the postponement of first order fertility in Italy involved mostly women holding a university degree in younger cohorts. Moreover, in the early 2000s a recovery process at later ages was just beginning, even if limited in magnitude. Finally, significant differences at a regional level were found: specifically, until recently, southern Italy still displayed a limited birth postponement and no recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcantonio Caltabiano, 2016. "A turning point in Italian fertility," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 379-397, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:33:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s12546-016-9169-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-016-9169-9
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    6. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.

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