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Indeterminacy in stochastic overlapping generations models: real effects in the long run

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  • Zhigang Feng

    (University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign)

  • Matthew Hoelle

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

Indeterminate equilibria are known to exist for overlapping generations models, though recent research has been limited to deterministic settings in which all equilibria converge to a steady state in the long run. This paper analyzes stochastic overlapping generations models with three-period-lived representative consumers and adopts a novel computational algorithm to numerically approximate the entire set of competitive equilibria. In a stochastic setting with incomplete markets, indeterminacy has real effects in the long run. Our numerical simulations reveal that indeterminacy is an order of magnitude more important than endowment shocks in explaining long-run consumption and asset price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhigang Feng & Matthew Hoelle, 2017. "Indeterminacy in stochastic overlapping generations models: real effects in the long run," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 559-585, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:63:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-015-0947-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-015-0947-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    OLG; Indeterminacy; Markov Equilibrium; Computation; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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