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Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

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  • Cheng Chen

    (Clemson University)

  • Tatsuro Senga

    (Keio University
    Queen Mary University of London
    RIETI)

  • Hongyong Zhang

    (RIETI)

Abstract

Utilizing a unique firm-level survey in Japan that contains five-bin forecasts for sales, we document three findings. First, firm-level subjective uncertainty is highly and positively related to volatility of past firm growth. Second, there are substantial variations in subjective uncertainty across firms, with a long right tail with extremely high subjective uncertainty. In addition, firms that have exposure to international businesses either through international trade or foreign direct investment have both higher average expected sales and subjective uncertainty. Finally, the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in January–February 2020 led to a substantial increase in firms’ subjective uncertainty. Our triple-difference estimation results show that this effect is especially large for firms that have direct exposure to China through international trade and foreign direct investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Chen & Tatsuro Senga & Hongyong Zhang, 2021. "Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 509-532, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:72:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s42973-021-00078-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s42973-021-00078-8
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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 22079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Morita, Hiroshi & Ono, Taiki, 2022. "COVID-19 Uncertainty Index in Japan: Newspaper-Based Measures and Economic Activities," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-116, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. ZHANG Hongyong & DOAN Thi Thanh Ha, 2023. "Global Sourcing and Firm Inventory during the Pandemic," Discussion papers 23018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Kongphop WONGKAEW & SAITO Yukiko, 2023. "CEO Age, Firm Exit and Zombification amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 23080, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Firms' Knightian Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 22089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2021. "Uncertainty of Firms' Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 21042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. ZHANG Hongyong, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Production: Evidence from Japanese Multinational Firms," Discussion papers 21014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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