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Portfolio optimization using dynamic factor and stochastic volatility: evidence on Fat-tailed errors and leverage

Author

Listed:
  • Tsunehiro Ishihara

    (Osaka University)

  • Yasuhiro Omori

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

The portfolio optimization problem is investigated using a multivariate stochastic volatility model with factor dynamics, fat-tailed errors and leverage effects. The efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to estimate model parameters, and the Rao–Blackwellized auxiliary particle filter is used to compute the likelihood and to predict conditional means and covariances. The proposed models are applied to sector indices of the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX), which consists of 33 stock market indices classified by industrial sectors. The portfolio is dynamically optimized under several expected utilities and two additional static strategies are considered as benchmarks. An extensive empirical study indicates that our proposed dynamic factor model with leverage or fat-tailed errors significantly improves the predictions of the conditional mean and covariances, as well as various measures of portfolio performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsunehiro Ishihara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Portfolio optimization using dynamic factor and stochastic volatility: evidence on Fat-tailed errors and leverage," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 63-94, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:68:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1111_jere.12114
    DOI: 10.1111/jere.12114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kastner, Gregor, 2019. "Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 98-115.
    2. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2020. "Dynamic Factor, Leverage and Realized Covariances in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1158, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Yoshihiro Ohtsuka, 2018. "Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 143-178, April.
    4. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2020. "Dynamic factor, leverage and realized covariances in multivariate stochastic volatility," Papers 2011.06909, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    5. Yuta Yamauchi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2021. "Dynamic Factor, Leverage and Realized Covariances in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1176, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Gregor Kastner & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter & Hedibert Freitas Lopes, 2016. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility Models," Papers 1602.08154, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C11; C58; G11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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