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Abstract

A new efficient simulation smoother and disturbance smoother are introduced for asymmetric stochastic volatility models where there exists a correlation between today's return and tomorrow's volatility. The state vector is divided into several blocks where each block consists of many state variables. For each block, corresponding disturbances are sampled simultaneously from their conditional posterior distribution. The algorithm is based on the multivariate normal approximation of the conditional posterior density and exploits a conventional simulation smoother for a linear and Gaussian state-space model. The performance of our method is illustrated using two examples: (1) simple asymmetric stochastic volatility model and (2) asymmetric stochastic volatility model with state-dependent variances. The popular single move sampler which samples a state variable at a time is also conducted for comparison in the first example. It is shown that our proposed sampler produces considerable improvement in the mixing property of the Markov chain Monte Carlo chain.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8V-4PP2CM7-1/1/8325017d0608386ac2f12de77d7ac1ae
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (February)
Pages: 2892-2910

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:2892-2910

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1. Celeux, Gilles & Marin, Jean-Michel & Robert, Christian P., 2006. "Iterated importance sampling in missing data problems," Open Access publications from Université Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/6215, Université Paris-Dauphine.
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4. Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2007. "Block Sampler and Posterior Mode Estimation for A Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State-space Model with Correlated Errors," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-508, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
   
   • Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2007. "Block Sampler and Posterior Mode Estimation for A Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State-Space Model with Correlated Errors," CARF F-Series CARF-F-104, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
   • Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2003. "Block Sampler and Posterior Mode Estimation for a Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian State-Space Model with Correlated Errors," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-221, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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8. Yu, Jun, 2005. "On leverage in a stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 165-178, August.
   
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10. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-34, October.
11. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
12. Omori, Yasuhiro & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2007. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 425-449, October.
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Cited by:

1. Abanto-Valle, C.A. & Bandyopadhyay, D. & Lachos, V.H. & Enriquez, I., 2010. "Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 2883-2898, December.
2. Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2008. "Modelling long-memory volatilities with leverage effect: A-LMSV versus FIEGARCH," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2846-2862, February.
   
   • Esther Ruiz & Helena Veiga, 2006. "Modelling Long-Memory Volatilities With Leverage Effect: Almsv Versus Fiegarch," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws066016, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
   • Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, . "Modelling long-memory volatilities with leverage effect: A-LMSV versus FIEGARCH," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/5024, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
3. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," CORE Discussion Papers 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
4. Borovkova, Svetlana & Permana, Ferry J., 2009. "Implied volatility in oil markets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2022-2039, April.
5. Jouchi Nakajima & Tsuyoshi Kunihama & Yasuhiro Omori & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, 2009. "Generalized extreme value distribution with time-dependence using the AR and MA models in state space form," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-689, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
   
   • Nakajima, Jouchi & Kunihama, Tsuyoshi & Omori, Yasuhiro & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia, 2012. "Generalized extreme value distribution with time-dependence using the AR and MA models in state space form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3241-3259.
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Tsuyoshi Kunihama & Yasuhiro Omori & Sylvia Fruwirth-Scnatter, 2009. "Generalized Extreme Value Distribution with Time-Dependence Using the AR and MA Models in State Space Form," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-32, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Tsuyoshi Kunihama & Yasuhiro Omori & Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnatter, 2011. "Generalized Extreme Value Distribution with Time-Dependence Using the AR and MA Models in State Space Form," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-782, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
6. Nakajima, Jouchi & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2012. "Stochastic volatility model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using GH skew Student’s t-distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3690-3704.
   
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2010. "Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage and Asymmetrically Heavy-tailed Error Using GH Skew Student's t-distribution," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-124, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2010. "Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage and Asymmetrically Heavy-Tailed Error Using GH Skew Student?s t-Distribution," CARF F-Series CARF-F-215, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2009. "Stochastic volatility model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using GH skew Student's t-distribution," CARF F-Series CARF-F-199, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2009. "Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage and Asymmetrically Heavy-Tailed Error Using GH Skew Student's t-Distribution," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-701, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
7. Wang, Joanna J.J. & Chan, Jennifer S.K. & Choy, S.T. Boris, 2011. "Stochastic volatility models with leverage and heavy-tailed distributions: A Bayesian approach using scale mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 852-862, January.
8. Nakajima, Jouchi & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2009. "Leverage, heavy-tails and correlated jumps in stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2335-2353, April.
   
   • Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2007. "Leverage, heavy-tails and correlated jumps in stochastic volatility models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-514, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
9. Strid, Ingvar, 2010. "Efficient parallelisation of Metropolis-Hastings algorithms using a prefetching approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2814-2835, November.
10. Shinichiro Shirota & Takayuki Hizu & Yasuhiro Omori, 2012. "Realized stochastic volatility with leverage and long memory," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-869, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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