IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/italej/v6y2020i3d10.1007_s40797-019-00109-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War on Euro Area Economies: A Tale of Global Value Chains

Author

Listed:
  • Ilaria Fusacchia

    (Roma Tre University)

Abstract

The US–Sino trade war will have significant repercussions on the global trade system. This study assesses the implications of the successive rounds of tariff hikes implemented by the US and Chinese governments on global value chains, with a focus on the major European Union economies. The evaluation is based on a computable general equilibrium model which incorporates a decomposition of trade in a value-added basis and allows to identify how changes in the conditions under which US–China trade is conducted affect the value contributed by different countries and to what extent. I find that US integration within GVCs contracts whereas China increases its participation mainly as a seller to global networks. The EU countries strengthen their linkages with the US and EU regional integration increases as a consequence of the tariff war between the US and China.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilaria Fusacchia, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War on Euro Area Economies: A Tale of Global Value Chains," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 441-468, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:italej:v:6:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s40797-019-00109-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s40797-019-00109-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40797-019-00109-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40797-019-00109-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    2. Jean Balié & Davide Del Prete & Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does bilateral trade policy impact on backward and forward participation?," Working Papers 4/17, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    3. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo & Margherita Velucchi, 2018. "Diverse twins: analysing China’s impact on Italian and German exports using a multilevel quantile regressions approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(28), pages 3051-3065, June.
    4. Emily J. Blanchard & Chad P. Bown & Robert C. Johnson, 2016. "Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy," NBER Working Papers 21883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Borin, Alessandro & Mancini, Michele, 2017. "Follow the Value Added: Tracking Bilateral Relations in Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 82692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2013. "Fragmentation, incomes and jobs: an analysis of European competitiveness [Who captures value in global supply chains?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(76), pages 613-661.
    7. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & Paul Veenendaal, 2017. "Identifying hubs and spokes in global supply chains using redirected trade in value added," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 66-81, January.
    8. Daria Taglioni & Deborah Winkler, 2016. "Making Global Value Chains Work for Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24426, December.
    9. Alessandro Borin & Michele Mancini, 2019. "Measuring What Matters in Global Value Chains and Value-Added Trade," World Bank Publications - Reports 31533, The World Bank Group.
    10. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2011. "Who produces for whom in the world economy?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1403-1437, November.
    11. Harry G. Johnson, 1953. "Optimum Tariffs and Retaliation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 21(2), pages 142-153.
    12. Edward J. Balistreri & Christoph Böhringer & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Quantifying Disruptive Trade Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7382, CESifo.
    13. Jared Greenville & Kentaro Kawasaki & Raphaël Beaujeu, 2017. "How policies shape global food and agriculture value chains," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 100, OECD Publishing.
    14. Antoine Bouet & David Laborde, 2017. "US trade wars with emerging countries: make America (and its partners) lose again !," Post-Print hal-02149131, HAL.
    15. Karyne B. Charbonneau & Anthony Landry, 2018. "The Trade War in Numbers," Staff Working Papers 18-57, Bank of Canada.
    16. Ralph Ossa, 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4104-4146, December.
    17. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    18. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
    20. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9), pages 1276-1306, September.
    21. Cattaneo, O. & Gereffi, G. & Miroudot, S. & Taglioni, D., 2013. "Joining, upgrading and being competitive in global value chains : a strategic framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6406, The World Bank.
    22. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    23. Meixin Guo & Lin Lu & Liugang Sheng & Miaojie Yu, 2018. "The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 101-120, Winter/Sp.
    24. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    25. Wilko Bolt & Kostas Mavromatis & Sweder van Wijnbergen, "undated". "The Global Macroeconomics of a Trade War: The EAGLE model on the US-China trade conflict," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-015/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    26. Marcel P. Timmer & Abdul Azeez Erumban & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2014. "Slicing Up Global Value Chains," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 99-118, Spring.
    27. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Kunfu Zhu, 2013. "Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels," NBER Working Papers 19677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Koopman, Robert & Wang, Zhi & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 178-189.
    29. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    30. Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), 2014. "Asia and Global Production Networks," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15649.
    31. Natalya Ayzenberg & Igor Bykadorov & Sergey Kokovin, 2018. "Optimal Reciprocal Import Tariffs Under Variable Elasticity Of Substitution," HSE Working papers WP BRP 204/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    32. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    33. Kutlina-Dimitrova,Zornitsa & Lakatos,Csilla, 2017. "The global costs of protectionism," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8277, The World Bank.
    34. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    35. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    36. Bart Los & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2016. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1958-1966, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chih‐Hai Yang & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "The Substitution Effect of US‐China Trade War on Taiwanese Trade," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(4), pages 324-341, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    2. Antimiani, Alessandro & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Salvatici, Luca, 2016. "Value Added Trade Restrictiveness Indexes. Measuring Protection with Global Value Chains," Conference papers 332745, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Ilaria Fusacchia & Jean Balié & Luca Salvatici, 2022. "The AfCFTA impact on agricultural and food trade: a value added perspective," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 237-284.
    4. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luca Salvatici & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "New features, forgotten costs and counterfactual gains of the international trading system," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 592-633.
    6. Victor Kummritz, 2015. "Global Value Chains: Benefiting the Domestic Economy?," IHEID Working Papers 02-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Bhushan Praveen Jangam & Badri Narayan Rath, 2020. "Cross-country convergence in global value chains: Evidence from club convergence analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 134-146.
    8. Baldwin, Richard & Freeman, Rebecca & Theodorakopoulos, Angelos, 2022. "Horses for courses: measuring foreign supply chain exposure," Bank of England working papers 996, Bank of England.
    9. Inaki Arto & Erik Dietzenbacher & Jose Manuel Rueda-Cantuche, 2019. "Measuring bilateral trade in terms of value added," JRC Research Reports JRC116694, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Chen, Quanrun & Chen, Xikang & Pei, Jiansuo & Yang, Cuihong & Zhu, Kunfu, 2020. "Estimating domestic content in China’s exports: Accounting for a dual-trade regime," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-54.
    11. Amat Adarov, 2021. "Interactions Between Global Value Chains and Foreign Direct Investment: A Network Approach," wiiw Working Papers 204, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    12. F. Colozza & R. Boschma & A. Morrison & C. Pietrobelli, 2021. "The importance of global value chains and regional capabilities for the economic complexity of EU-regions," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2139, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Dec 2021.
    13. Banacloche, Santacruz & Cadarso, María Ángeles & Monsalve, Fabio, 2020. "Implications of measuring value added in exports with a regional input-output table. A case of study in South America," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 130-140.
    14. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Wages: Multi-Country Evidence from Linked Worker-Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 505-539, July.
    15. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    16. Nagendra Shrestha & Kiyotaka Sato, 2021. "Global and regional shock transmission: an Asian perspective," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    17. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9), pages 1276-1306, September.
    18. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2021. "Regional and global patterns of participation in value chains: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 154-171.
    19. Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2018. "Opening and linking up: firms, GVCs, and productivity in Latin America," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 917-935, April.
    20. Zhao, Yuhuan & Liu, Ya & Qiao, Xiaoyong & Wang, Song & Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhang, Yongfeng & Li, Hao, 2018. "Tracing value added in gross exports of China: Comparison with the USA, Japan, Korea, and India based on generalized LMDI," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 24-44.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade war; Global value chains; Trade in value added; Computable general equilibrium model; Trade policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:italej:v:6:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s40797-019-00109-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.