IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20141695.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Collateral imbalances in intra-european trade? Accounting for the difference between gross and value added trade balances

Author

Listed:
  • Stehrer, Robert
  • Nagengast, Arne J.

Abstract

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners. JEL Classification: F1, F2, C67, R15

Suggested Citation

  • Stehrer, Robert & Nagengast, Arne J., 2014. "Collateral imbalances in intra-european trade? Accounting for the difference between gross and value added trade balances," Working Paper Series 1695, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141695
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1695.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Koopman & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Tracing Value-Added and Double Counting in Gross Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 459-494, February.
    2. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2013. "Fragmentation, incomes and jobs: an analysis of European competitiveness [Who captures value in global supply chains?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(76), pages 613-661.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
    5. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2011. "Who produces for whom in the world economy?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1403-1437, November.
    6. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los, 1998. "Structural Decomposition Techniques: Sense and Sensitivity," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 307-324.
    7. di Mauro, Filippo & Pappadà, Francesco, 2014. "Euro area external imbalances and the burden of adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 336-356.
    8. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517133.
    9. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521739023.
    10. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "Accounting for the Differences Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(9), pages 1276-1306, September.
    11. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mika Saito & Mr. Jarkko Turunen, 2013. "Measuring Competitiveness: Trade in Goods or Tasks?," IMF Working Papers 2013/100, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    13. Foster-McGregor, Neil & Stehrer, Robert, 2013. "Value added content of trade: A comprehensive approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 354-357.
    14. Puzzello, Laura, 2012. "A proportionality assumption and measurement biases in the factor content of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 105-111.
    15. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Value-Added Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bems, Rudolfs, 2014. "Intermediate inputs, external rebalancing and relative price adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 248-262.
    17. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    18. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "The Mystery of the Excess Trade (Balances)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 170-174, May.
    19. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Kunfu Zhu, 2013. "Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels," NBER Working Papers 19677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    2. Nenci, Silvia & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Giunta, Anna & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2022. "Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 11(2), July.
    3. Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2016. "Value-added Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Trade Elasticity: Revisiting the Trade Competitiveness," 2016 Papers pud11, Job Market Papers.
    4. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Felice, Giulia & Tajoli, Lucia, 2021. "Trade balances and global value chains: Is there a link?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 228-246.
    6. Inaki Arto & Erik Dietzenbacher & Jose Manuel Rueda-Cantuche, 2019. "Measuring bilateral trade in terms of value added," JRC Research Reports JRC116694, Joint Research Centre.
    7. Zhao, Yuhuan & Liu, Ya & Qiao, Xiaoyong & Wang, Song & Zhang, Zhonghua & Zhang, Yongfeng & Li, Hao, 2018. "Tracing value added in gross exports of China: Comparison with the USA, Japan, Korea, and India based on generalized LMDI," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 24-44.
    8. Konstantins Benkovskis & Julia Woerz, 2014. ""Made in China" - How Does it Affect Measures of Competitiveness?," Working Papers 2014/04, Latvijas Banka.
    9. João Amador & Rita Cappariello & Robert Stehrer, 2015. "Global Value Chains: A View from the Euro Area," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 99-120, June.
    10. João Lopes & Ana Santos, 2015. "Vertical Specialization, Global Value Chains and the changing Geography of Trade: the Portuguese Rubber and Plastics Industry Case," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 3105028, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Marta Solaz Alamá, 2016. "Cadenas globales de valor y generación de valor añadido: El caso de la economía española," Working Papers. Serie EC 2016-01, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    12. Ilaria Fusacchia, 2020. "Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War on Euro Area Economies: A Tale of Global Value Chains," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 441-468, November.
    13. Hongsheng Zhang & Bo Meng & Shuzhong Ma, 2018. "Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 463-485, July.
    14. Robert C. Johnson, 2018. "Measuring Global Value Chains," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 207-236, August.
    15. Dominik Boddin, 2016. "The Role of Newly Industrialized Economies in Global Value Chains," IMF Working Papers 2016/207, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Borin, Alessandro & Mancini, Michele, 2017. "Follow the Value Added: Tracking Bilateral Relations in Global Value Chains," MPRA Paper 82692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2014. "Global value chains: surveying drivers and measures," Working Paper Series 1739, European Central Bank.
    18. Antimiani, Alessandro & Fusacchia, Ilaria & Salvatici, Luca, 2016. "Value Added Trade Restrictiveness Indexes. Measuring Protection with Global Value Chains," Conference papers 332745, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Nagendra Shrestha & Kiyotaka Sato, 2021. "Global and regional shock transmission: an Asian perspective," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, December.
    20. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues, 2021. "Regional and global patterns of participation in value chains: Evidence from Brazil," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 154-171.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global value chains; input-output tables; trade balances; value added; vertical specialisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.