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The Evolution of Certainty in a Small Decision-Making Group by Consensus

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  • Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi

    (Academia Română
    Universitatea Bucureşti)

Abstract

We propose a dynamical systems model for approximating the certainty as a function of communication. Uncertainty is measured during a small group decision-making process, in which participants aim to reach consensus. Assuming that the communication is a one-dimensional continuum variable, both first- and second-order differential models of certainty are analyzed, and then, the general model is obtained by superposition. An experiment was organized, and the data have been used to test the model. A detailed discussion on the assumptions of this approach from the decision theory point of view is also included.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Gheondea-Eladi, 2016. "The Evolution of Certainty in a Small Decision-Making Group by Consensus," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 127-155, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:25:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10726-015-9436-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10726-015-9436-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. James Cunningham & Alistair R. Anderson, 2018. "Inspired or Foolhardy: Sensemaking, Confidence and Entrepreneurs’ Decision-Making," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 393-415, June.

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