IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/futbus/v8y2022i1d10.1186_s43093-022-00126-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate movements: evidence from six major COVID-19 hot spots

Author

Listed:
  • Aamir Jamal

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Mudaser Ahad Bhat

    (Cluster University-ASC)

Abstract

The study’s primary objective is to unravel the nexus between the COVID-19 crisis and the exchange rate movements in the six major COVID-19 hot spots—Brazil, China, India, Italy, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. The impact of the COVID-19 deaths on the Rupee/USD, Pound/USD, Yuan/USD, Real/USD, Lira/USD, and Euro/USD exchange rates is analyzed by using the panel ARDL model. The COVID-19 deaths are used as a proxy for market expectations. The panel ARDL model showed a unidirectional long-run causality running from the COVID-19 deaths to the exchange rate. In fact, the coefficient of COVID-19 deaths is positive and significant in explaining the exchange rate(s) in the long run. This result meets the a-priori expectation that a rise in COVID-19 deaths can depreciate the sample countries’ exchange rates. The reason being, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has changed the market expectations of the financial market participants about the future value of exchange rate(s) in the major COVID-19 hot spots. Therefore, countries experiencing a sharp daily rise in COVID-19 deaths typically saw their currencies weaken.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamir Jamal & Mudaser Ahad Bhat, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and the exchange rate movements: evidence from six major COVID-19 hot spots," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:8:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-022-00126-8
    DOI: 10.1186/s43093-022-00126-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s43093-022-00126-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s43093-022-00126-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    2. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Alarudeen Aminu, 2021. "Reaction of stock market returns to COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown policy: evidence from Nigerian firms stock returns," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Naji Mansour Nomran & Razali Haron, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Islamic versus conventional stock markets: international evidence from financial markets," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    5. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    6. Kingsley Ikechukwu Okere & Obumneke Bob Muoneke & Favour Chidinma Onuoha & Philip C. Omoke, 2022. "Tripartite relationship between FDI, trade openness and economic growth amidst global economic crisis in Nigeria: application of combined cointegration and augmented ARDL analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Aloui, Donia, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic haunting the transmission of the quantitative easing to the exchange rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    8. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    9. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    11. Olayinka Olufisayo Akinlo & John Ayobamibo Olayiwola, 2021. "Dividend policy-performance nexus: PMG-ARDL approach," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2020. "The Disease Outbreak Channel of Exchange Rate Return Predictability: Evidence from COVID-19," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2277-2297, August.
    14. Muhammad Sali Maheen, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the performance of emerging market mutual funds: evidence from India," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    16. Dacio Villarreal-Samaniego, 2021. "The dynamics of oil prices, COVID-19, and exchange rates in five emerging economies in the atypical first quarter of 2020," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(158), pages 17-27, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Changrong & Li, Jiaxiang & Liu, Lian & Yu, Fandi, 2023. "Spillover effect of the RMB and Non-USD currencies after the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence captured from 30-minute high frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 527-552.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wilman-Santiago Ochoa-Moreno & Byron Alejandro Quito & Carlos Andrés Moreno-Hurtado, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Quality: Revisiting the EKC in Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Muhammad Azam & Zia Ur Rehman & Yusnidah Ibrahim, 2022. "Causal nexus in industrialization, urbanization, trade openness, and carbon emissions: empirical evidence from OPEC economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13990-14010, December.
    3. Salah Eddine SARI HASSOUN & Abdelkader SAHED & Khayereddine Salim ADDA & Asma Hadjira SEBBANE, 2020. "Not a long ago, the agriculture sector was the main pillar of any economy in the world. It not only provides food production, but it participates to the expansion of the economic growth as well. In th," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(623), S), pages 301-324, Summer.
    4. Fredj Jawadi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Nabila Jawadi, 2016. "Can the Islamic bank be an emerging leader? A panel data causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 991-994, September.
    5. Issam Khelfaoui & Yuantao Xie & Muhammad Hafeez & Danish Ahmed & Houssem Eddine Degha & Hicham Meskher, 2022. "Information Communication Technology and Infant Mortality in Low-Income Countries: Empirical Study Using Panel Data Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-24, June.
    6. Fredj Jawadi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou & Nabila Jawadi, 2016. "Do Islamic and Conventional Banks Really Differ? A Panel Data Statistical Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 293-302, April.
    7. Muntasir Murshed & Seemran Rashid, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Responses to Foreign Currency Inflows: Revisiting the Dutch Disease Phenomenon in South Asia," The Economics and Finance Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 7(1), pages 23-46.
    8. Usman, Muhammad & Khalid, Khaizran & Mehdi, Muhammad Abuzar, 2021. "What determines environmental deficit in Asia? Embossing the role of renewable and non-renewable energy utilization," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1165-1176.
    9. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Sandu, Suwin & Yang, Muyi & Phoumin, Han & Aghdam, Reza Fathollahzadeh & Shi, Xunpeng, 2021. "Assessment of accessible, clean and efficient energy systems: A statistical analysis of composite energy performance indices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    11. Jiang, Hongdian & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Kangyin, 2020. "What drives China's natural gas consumption? Analysis of national and regional estimates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal & Yaseen, Muhammad Rizwan & Ali, Qamar, 2019. "Nexus between financial development, tourism, renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emission in high-income countries: A continent-wise analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 293-310.
    13. Hyunsoo Kang, 2021. "CO 2 Emissions Embodied in International Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Furuoka, Fumitaka, 2017. "Renewable electricity consumption and economic development: New findings from the Baltic countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 450-463.
    15. Jacobo Campo & Henry Mendoza, 2018. "Public expenditure and economic growth: a regional analysis for Colombia, 1984-2012," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 88, pages 77-108, Enero - J.
    16. Takashi Kamihigashi & Yosuke Sasaki, 2022. "The Impact of Multi-Factor Productivity on Income Inequality," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-31, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    17. Xie, Bofeng & Rehman, Mubeen Abdur & Zhang, Junyan & Yang, Runze, 2022. "Does the financialization of natural resources lead toward sustainability? An application of advance panel Granger non-causality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Ortiz, Cristian & Alvarado, Rafael & Salinas, Aldo, 2019. "The effect of military spending on output: New evidence at the global and country group levels using panel data cointegration techniques," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 402-414.
    19. Alper Aslan & Ebru Topcu, 2018. "The Relationship between Export and Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Turkish Sectors," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-15, April.
    20. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Exchange rate; Asset-market approach; Panel ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:futbus:v:8:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1186_s43093-022-00126-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.