IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/etbull/v8y2020i1d10.1007_s40505-019-00165-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Downside risk-neutral probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Chaigneau

    (Queen’s University)

  • Louis Eeckhoudt

    (IÉSEG School of Management)

Abstract

We show that there exists a probability measure under which the CAPM formula for expected returns holds for general utility functions and probability distributions. This probability measure, the “downside risk-neutral” measure, is adjusted to incorporate the effects of downside risk and higher degree risks. It thus belongs to the same family as the risk-neutral measure, which is also a risk-adjusted measure. Using risk preference theory, we interpret this change in probability measure in terms of risk substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Chaigneau & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2020. "Downside risk-neutral probabilities," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 8(1), pages 65-77, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:etbull:v:8:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s40505-019-00165-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40505-019-00165-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40505-019-00165-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40505-019-00165-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kimball, Miles S, 1990. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
    2. Menezes, Carmen F. & Wang, X.Henry, 2005. "Increasing outer risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 875-886, November.
    3. Modica, Salvatore & Scarsini, Marco, 2005. "A note on comparative downside risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 267-271, June.
    4. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2013. "Capturing Option Anomalies with a Variance-Dependent Pricing Kernel," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1963-2006.
    5. Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
    6. Cary Deck & Harris Schlesinger, 2010. "Exploring Higher Order Risk Effects," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1403-1420.
    7. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini & Marco Taboga, 2009. "Portfolio Selection With Monotone Mean‐Variance Preferences," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 487-521, July.
    8. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
    9. Chapman, David A, 1997. "Approximating the Asset Pricing Kernel," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1383-1410, September.
    10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    11. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    12. Charles N. Noussair & Stefan T. Trautmann & Gijs van de Kuilen, 2014. "Higher Order Risk Attitudes, Demographics, and Financial Decisions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(1), pages 325-355.
    13. Amaya, Diego & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2015. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-167.
    14. W. Henry Chiu, 2005. "Skewness Preference, Risk Aversion, and the Precedence Relations on Stochastic Changes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1816-1828, December.
    15. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2006. "Putting Risk in Its Proper Place," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 280-289, March.
    16. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    17. Feldstein, Martin S, 1969. "The Effects on Taxation on Risk Taking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 755-764, Sept./Oct.
    18. Menezes, C & Geiss, C & Tressler, J, 1980. "Increasing Downside Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 921-932, December.
    19. David Crainich & Louis Eeckhoudt & Alain Trannoy, 2013. "Even (Mixed) Risk Lovers Are Prudent," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1529-1535, June.
    20. Scott, Robert C & Horvath, Philip A, 1980. "On the Direction of Preference for Moments of Higher Order Than the Variance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 915-919, September.
    21. Chang, Bo Young & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris, 2013. "Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 46-68.
    22. Keenan, Donald C. & Snow, Arthur, 2010. "Greater prudence and greater downside risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(5), pages 2018-2026, September.
    23. Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Nonlinear Pricing Kernels, Kurtosis Preference, and Evidence from the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 369-403, February.
    24. Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2012. "Pricing Kernels with Stochastic Skewness and Volatility Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 624-640, March.
    25. David Crainich & Louis Eeckhoudt, 2008. "On the intensity of downside risk aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 267-276, June.
    26. Levy, Haim, 1994. "Absolute and Relative Risk Aversion: An Experimental Study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 289-307, May.
    27. Kimball, Miles S, 1993. "Standard Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May.
    28. Ian W. Martin, 2013. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing with Higher Cumulants," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 745-773.
    29. Liu, Liqun & Meyer, Jack, 2013. "Substituting one risk increase for another: A method for measuring risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2706-2718.
    30. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Monica Paiella, 2011. "Relative Risk Aversion Is Constant: Evidence From Panel Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(6), pages 1021-1052, December.
    31. Gollier, Christian & Schlesinger, Harris, 2002. "Changes in risk and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 747-760, May.
    32. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
    33. Landier, Augustin & Plantin, Guillaume, 2011. "Inequality, tax avoidance and financial instability," TSE Working Papers 11-282, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    34. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Leisen, Dietmar P.J. & Renault, Eric, 2014. "Aggregation of preferences for skewed asset returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 453-489.
    35. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    36. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy," EcoMod2017 10430, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chaigneau, Pierre & Eeckhoudt, Louis, 2016. "Downside risk neutral probabilities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118980, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Christian Gollier & James Hammitt & Nicolas Treich, 2013. "Risk and choice: A research saga," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 129-145, October.
    3. Georges Dionne & Jingyuan Li & Cedric Okou, 2012. "An Extension of the Consumption-based CAPM Model," Cahiers de recherche 1214, CIRPEE.
    4. Sebastian Ebert & Daniel Wiesen, 2014. "Joint measurement of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 231-252, June.
    5. Paan Jindapon & Liqun Liu & William S. Neilson, 2021. "Comparative risk apportionment," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 9(1), pages 91-112, April.
    6. James Huang & Richard Stapleton, 2017. "Higher-order risk vulnerability," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 387-406, February.
    7. Liqun Liu & Nicolas Treich, 2021. "Optimality of winner-take-all contests: the role of attitudes toward risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 1-25, August.
    8. Sebastian Ebert & Diego C. Nocetti & Harris Schlesinger, 2018. "Greater Mutual Aggravation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2809-2811, June.
    9. Jingyuan Li & Georges Dionne, 2010. "A Theoretical Extension of the Consumption-based CAPM Model," Cahiers de recherche 1047, CIRPEE.
    10. Liqun Liu & William S. Neilson, 2019. "Alternative Approaches to Comparative n th-Degree Risk Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3824-3834, August.
    11. Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2012. "Pricing Kernels with Stochastic Skewness and Volatility Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 624-640, March.
    12. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2013. "Do jumps contribute to the dynamics of the equity premium?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 457-477.
    13. Emmanuel Jurczenko & Bertrand Maillet & Paul Merlin, 2008. "Efficient Frontier for Robust Higher-order Moment Portfolio Selection," Post-Print halshs-00336475, HAL.
    14. Eeckhoudt, Louis R. & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Schlesinger, Harris, 2020. "Risk apportionment: The dual story," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    15. Schneider, Sebastian O. & Sutter, Matthias, 2020. "Higher Order Risk Preferences: Experimental Measures, Determinants and Related Field Behavior," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224643, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Liu, Liqun & Meyer, Jack, 2013. "Substituting one risk increase for another: A method for measuring risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2706-2718.
    17. Heinzel, Christoph, 2023. "Comparing utility derivative premia under additive and multiplicative risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 23-40.
    18. Colasante, Annarita & Riccetti, Luca, 2020. "Risk aversion, prudence and temperance: It is a matter of gap between moments," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    19. Liqun Liu & Jack Meyer, 2012. "Decreasing absolute risk aversion, prudence and increased downside risk aversion," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 243-260, June.
    20. Ebert, Sebastian & van de Kuilen, Gijs, 2015. "Experiments on bivariate risk preferences," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113055, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Downside risk; Prudence; Risk aversion; Risk-neutral probabilities; Risk substitution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:etbull:v:8:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s40505-019-00165-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.