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Exploring causal relationship between Major League Baseball games and crime: a synthetic control analysis

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  • Hyunwoong Pyun

    (West Virginia University)

Abstract

Using the Washington Nationals case, which moved from Montreal, Canada, to Washington, DC in 2005, as a natural experiment, I examine the impact of MLB games on crime in a host city. To address endogeneity concerns, this paper applies a synthetic control method with using 21 large cities which host an MLB team as a “donor pool” and employs a triple difference-in-difference approach to estimate the change in crime before and after the Nationals coming, between MLB season and off-season, and Washington, DC and the synthetic Washington. With using monthly crime data from the Uniform Crime Report, only assaults increased by 7–7.5% annually after the Nationals moved to DC; other crimes were unchanged. This result is supported by statistical significance and in-space placebo tests, and several alternative specifications in robustness check. These increases in assaults could be associated with additional costs, annually from $20 to $35 million. Little to no evidence of a causal relationship between MLB games and other types of crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyunwoong Pyun, 2019. "Exploring causal relationship between Major League Baseball games and crime: a synthetic control analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 365-383, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:57:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-018-1440-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1440-9
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    3. Chen, Yongqi & Riddell, Jordan R. & Hill, Joshua B. & Chen, Peng & Piquero, Alex R. & Kurland, Justin, 2022. "Gold, silver, and bronze: Measuring the impact of the Beijing 2008, London 2012, and Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympics on crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
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    6. Hiroaki Funahashi & Alexander Cardazzi & Nicholas Masafumi Watanabe, 2023. "Mass Gathering Sport Events and the Spread of Viral Respiratory Infection: Japanese Professional Baseball and Influenza," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 551-578, June.
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    8. Brad R. Humphreys & Jane E. Ruseski, 2019. "Geographic Determinants of Infant Health: The Impact of Sports Facility Construction Projects," Working Papers 19-06, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    9. Aakrit Joshi & Brady P. Horn & Robert P. Berrens, 2020. "Major league soccer expansion and property values: do sports franchises generate amenities or disamenities?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(44), pages 4881-4899, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Major League Baseball; Stadium; Uniform Crime Report; Externality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R53 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Public Facility Location Analysis; Public Investment and Capital Stock
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z28 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - Policy

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