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Exploring the influence of industries and randomness in stock prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Contreras

    (Universitat de Girona)

  • J. Ignacio Hidalgo

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Laura Nuñez

    (IE Business School)

Abstract

This study explores the behavior of time series of historical prices and makes two additional contributions to the literature. In summarized form, we present an overview of each of the financial theories that discuss the movements of stock prices and their connection with industry trends. Within this theoretical framework, we first propose that prices be distinguished by following stock prices and a random-walk approach, and second, that the analysis of historical prices be broken down by industries. Similarities among price series are extracted through a clustering methodology based on an approach to non-computable Kolmogorov complexity. We model price series by following geometric Brownian motion and compare them to historical series of stock prices. Our first contribution confirms the existence of hidden common patterns in time series of historical prices that are clearly distinguishable from simulated series. The second contribution claims strong connections among firms carrying out similar industrial activities. The results confirm that stock prices belonging to the same industry behave similarly, whereas they behave differently from those of firms in other industries. Our research sheds new light on the stylized feature of the non-randomness of stock prices by pointing at fundamental aspects related to the industry as partial explanatory factors behind price movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Contreras & J. Ignacio Hidalgo & Laura Nuñez, 2018. "Exploring the influence of industries and randomness in stock prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 713-729, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1303-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1303-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time series; Stock prices; Information theory; Random walk; Industry analysis; Macroeconomic analysis; Clustering;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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