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Do national business cycles have an international origin?

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Author Info
Joffrey Malek Mansour
Abstract

This paper analyses a set of output data for 113 countries and identifies common sources of fluctuations, to estimate a world business cycle. We also analyze the multiplier effects of worldwide or global shocks and their implications for the persistence and amplitude of cyclical fluctuations. We find that a higher relative importance of global shocks leads to lower persistence and greater volatility. Finally, we compare some regional integration agreements and find that the EC emerges as the most integrated block. The analytical framework used is that of Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (1999). Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s001810200128
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
Pages: 223-247
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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:2:p:223-247

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Related research
Keywords: Key words: business cycles; dynamic factor analysis; economic integration; principal components; JEL classification numbers: C23; E32; F02;

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  1. Michael Graff, 2005. "Internationale Konjunkturverbunde," KOF Working papers 05-108, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bergman, Michael, 2004. "How Similar Are European Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2004:9, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Sáiz Matute, Lorena, 2005. "Are European Business Cycles Close Enough to be Just One?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ana Buisán & Fernando Restoy, 2005. "Cross country macroeconomic heterogeneity in EMU," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0504, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bovi, M., 2005. "Economic Clubs and European Commitment. Evidence from the International Business Cycles," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 101-122. [Downloadable!]
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