IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ediscc/v7y2023i3d10.1007_s41885-023-00135-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Sovereign Catastrophe Bonds Improve Fiscal Resilience? An Application of Synthetic Control Method to Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Raluca Maran

Abstract

Natural disasters exert a significant impact on government finances. Catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) constitute risk-transfer instruments that could help governments improve their fiscal resilience when catastrophic events occur. However, given the very limited issuance of sovereign CAT bonds so far, their actual impact on fiscal resilience is difficult to quantify. There is no literature on this topic currently available. I attempt to fill this gap and assess the impact of CAT bond payouts on the fiscal balance of the Mexican government using the synthetic control method. As an early adopter and repeated issuer of sovereign CAT bonds since 2006, Mexico received its first CAT bond payout in 2017. The payout was triggered by a high-magnitude earthquake that stroke the country in September 2017, with an estimated impact of 0.24% of Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP). I identify 12 countries that experienced natural disasters with a similar impact on GDP in 2017, but which unlike Mexico have not received a CAT bond payout that year. I then compare post-2017 fiscal balances for Mexico with a synthetic control unit that combines the characteristics of the 12 similar but untreated countries, while controlling for other factors that could have had an impact on this fiscal variable. I find a positive and statistically significant impact of the 2017 CAT bond payout on Mexico’s fiscal balance compared to its synthetic control unit. A series of placebo studies and robustness tests confirm the validity of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Raluca Maran, 2023. "Do Sovereign Catastrophe Bonds Improve Fiscal Resilience? An Application of Synthetic Control Method to Mexico," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 431-455, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:7:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s41885-023-00135-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s41885-023-00135-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41885-023-00135-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41885-023-00135-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2003. "The fiscal cost implications of an accommodating approach to banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1539-1560, August.
    2. Maltritz, Dominik & Wüste, Sebastian, 2015. "Determinants of budget deficits in Europe: The role and relations of fiscal rules, fiscal councils, creative accounting and the Euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 222-236.
    3. Chia‐Chien Chang & Shih‐Kuei Lin & Min‐Teh Yu, 2011. "Valuation of Catastrophe Equity Puts With Markov‐Modulated Poisson Processes," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 447-473, June.
    4. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Adam, Christopher & Bevan, David, 2020. "Tropical cyclones and post-disaster reconstruction of public infrastructure in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 82-99.
    7. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Do fiscal rules need budget transparency to be effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Cho, Dooyeon & Lee, Kyung-woo, 2022. "Population aging and fiscal sustainability: Nonlinear evidence from Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Di Tommaso, Caterina & Foglia, Matteo & Pacelli, Vincenzo, 2023. "The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    10. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    11. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Raluca Maran, 2023. "Drivers of sovereign catastrophe bond issuance: an empirical analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Carolyn W. Chang & Jack S. K. Chang & Min‐Teh Yu & Yang Zhao, 2020. "Portfolio optimization in the catastrophe space," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1414-1448, November.
    14. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2023. "Macroeconomic outcomes in disaster-prone countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    15. OECD & World Bank, 2019. "Fiscal Resilience to Natural Disasters," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 32341, December.
    16. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "Measuring the liquidity impact on catastrophe bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 197-210.
    17. Giesenow, Federico M. & de Wit, Juliette & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "The political and institutional determinants of fiscal adjustments and expansions: Evidence for a large set of countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    19. Oto-Peralías, Daniel & Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2013. "Does fiscal decentralization mitigate the adverse effects of corruption on public deficits?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 205-231.
    20. Caselli, Francesca & Reynaud, Julien, 2020. "Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    21. Lo, Chien-Ling & Chang, Carolyn W. & Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2021. "Pricing catastrophe swaps with default risk and stochastic interest rates," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    22. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    23. Blackburn, Keith & Powell, Jonathan, 2011. "Corruption, inflation and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 225-227.
    24. Lanfear, Matthew G. & Lioui, Abraham & Siebert, Mark G., 2019. "Market anomalies and disaster risk: Evidence from extreme weather events," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    25. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    26. Huang, Po-Chun & Yang, Tzu-Ting, 2021. "The welfare effects of extending unemployment benefits: Evidence from re-employment and unemployment transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    27. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    2. Bilbao-Goyoaga, Eugenia, 2023. "Perceptions Matter: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Minimum Income on Objective and Subjective Financial Wellbeing in Spain," SocArXiv wv7xt, Center for Open Science.
    3. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    4. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    5. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    6. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    7. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    8. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    9. Pavlik, Jamie Bologna & Jahan, Israt & Young, Andrew T., 2023. "Do longer constitutions corrupt?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    11. Peter Backus & Thien Nguyen, 2021. "The Effect of the Sex Buyer Law on the Market for Sex, Sexual Health and Sexual Violence," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2106, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    12. Tomasz Serwach, 2023. "The European Union and within‐country income inequalities. The case of the new member states," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1890-1939, July.
    13. Goryunov, Alexander & Ageshina, Elena & Lavrentev, Igor & Peretyatko, Polina, 2023. "Estimating the effect of Russia’s development policy in the Far Eastern region: The synthetic control approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 72, pages 58-72.
    14. Avdic, Daniel & von Hinke, Stephanie, 2021. "Extending alcohol retailers’ opening hours: Evidence from Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Debdeep Chattopadhyay, 2023. "Did the Massachusetts Health Reform Program increase self-employment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1309-1344, September.
    16. Ayala, Luis & Martín-Román, Javier & Navarro, Carolina, 2023. "Unemployment shocks and material deprivation in the European Union: A synthetic control approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    17. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    18. Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.
    19. Florian Gunsilius & Meng Hsuan Hsieh & Myung Jin Lee, 2022. "Tangential Wasserstein Projections," Papers 2207.14727, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    20. Zhipeng Tang & Wenming Song & Jialing Zou, 2022. "The Early Effect of Black Land Protection Plan in Northeast China on Industrial Pollution Using Synthetic Control Method," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAT bond payouts; Disaster risk finance; Natural disaster events; Sovereign CAT bonds; Synthetic control methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ediscc:v:7:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s41885-023-00135-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.