IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v68y2021ics0927538x19305165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pricing catastrophe swaps with default risk and stochastic interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Lo, Chien-Ling
  • Chang, Carolyn W.
  • Lee, Jin-Ping
  • Yu, Min-Teh

Abstract

Catastrophe (CAT) swaps are bilateral contracts through which CAT losses can be transferred between two counterparties. They do not require collateral upon initiation, making them default-risky, have an average maturity of 3 years and may use index triggers, which suggest the valuation model must incorporate interest rate risk and basis risk. This study improves upon the literature and develops a dynamic structural framework to value CAT swaps and to analyze the impacts of interest rate risk, counterparty default risk, basis risk, trigger type, and other critical parameters. We estimate CAT swap spreads by using Monte Carlo simulation, with the main results indicating that the influence of stochastic interest rates on one-year CAT swap spreads is indeterminate, but is significant on 3-year and 5-year contracts. Counterparty default risk lowers CAT swap spreads, and all estimated default risk premiums are positive and economically significant. CAT loss uncertainty impacts contracts with different triggers in different ways, and basis risk becomes more severe for one-year contracts and where the correlation between the loss index and the buyer's actual loss is low.

Suggested Citation

  • Lo, Chien-Ling & Chang, Carolyn W. & Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2021. "Pricing catastrophe swaps with default risk and stochastic interest rates," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x19305165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101314
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X19305165
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101314?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Van Son Lai, 2017. "Reinsurance or CAT Bond? How to Optimally Combine Both," Working Papers 2017-003, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Gatzert, Nadine & Schmeiser, Hato, 2008. "Combining fair pricing and capital requirements for non-life insurance companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2589-2596, December.
    4. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Yu, Min-Teh, 2005. "Fair insurance guaranty premia in the presence of risk-based capital regulations, stochastic interest rate and catastrophe risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2435-2454, October.
    5. Cummins, J David, 1988. " Risk-Based Premiums for Insurance Guaranty Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 823-839, September.
    6. Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2007. "Valuation of catastrophe reinsurance with catastrophe bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 264-278, September.
    7. Pennacchi, George & Vermaelen, Theo & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2014. "Contingent Capital: The Case of COERCs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 541-574, June.
    8. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
    9. Cummins, J. David & Lalonde, David & Phillips, Richard D., 2004. "The basis risk of catastrophic-loss index securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 77-111, January.
    10. Lo, Chien-Ling & Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2013. "Valuation of insurers’ contingent capital with counterparty risk and price endogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5025-5035.
    11. Braun, Alexander, 2011. "Pricing catastrophe swaps: A contingent claims approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 520-536.
    12. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    13. Gatzert, Nadine & Kellner, Ralf, 2011. "The influence of non-linear dependencies on the basis risk of industry loss warranties," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 132-144, July.
    14. Shimko, David C., 1992. "The Valuation of Multiple Claim Insurance Contracts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 229-246, June.
    15. Chen, Naiwei & Liang, Hsin-Yu & Yu, Min-Teh, 2018. "Asset diversification and bank performance: Evidence from three Asian countries with a dual banking system," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 40-53.
    16. Jin-Chuan, Duan & Moreau, Arthur F. & Sealey, C. W., 1995. "Deposit insurance and bank interest rate risk: Pricing and regulatory implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1091-1108, September.
    17. Samuel Cox & Hal Pedersen, 2000. "Catastrophe Risk Bonds," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 56-82.
    18. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "Measuring the liquidity impact on catastrophe bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 197-210.
    19. Lo, Chien-Ling & Shih, Pai-Ta & Wang, Yaw-Huei & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "VIX derivatives: Valuation models and empirical evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-21.
    20. Li, Xiaodan & Jiao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh & Zhao, Yang, 2019. "Founders and the decision of Chinese dual-class IPOs in the U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    21. J. David Cummins, 2008. "CAT Bonds and Other Risk‐Linked Securities: State of the Market and Recent Developments," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 23-47, March.
    22. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raluca Maran, 2023. "Do Sovereign Catastrophe Bonds Improve Fiscal Resilience? An Application of Synthetic Control Method to Mexico," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 431-455, November.
    2. Han-Bin KANG & Hsuling CHANG & Tsangyao CHANG, 2022. "Catastrophe Reinsurance Pricing -Modification of Dynamic Asset-Liability Management," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lo, Chien-Ling & Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2013. "Valuation of insurers’ contingent capital with counterparty risk and price endogeneity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5025-5035.
    2. Wang, Guanying & Wang, Xingchun & Shao, Xinjian, 2022. "Exchange options for catastrophe risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Carolyn W. Chang & Jack S. K. Chang & Min‐Teh Yu & Yang Zhao, 2020. "Portfolio optimization in the catastrophe space," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1414-1448, November.
    4. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2017. "Valuing Vulnerable Mortgage Insurance Under Capital Forbearance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 558-578, May.
    5. Burnecki, Krzysztof & Giuricich, Mario Nicoló & Palmowski, Zbigniew, 2019. "Valuation of contingent convertible catastrophe bonds — The case for equity conversion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 238-254.
    6. Lee, Jin-Ping & Yu, Min-Teh, 2007. "Valuation of catastrophe reinsurance with catastrophe bonds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 264-278, September.
    7. Ma, Zong-Gang & Ma, Chao-Qun, 2013. "Pricing catastrophe risk bonds: A mixed approximation method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 243-254.
    8. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Yu, Min-Teh, 2005. "Fair insurance guaranty premia in the presence of risk-based capital regulations, stochastic interest rate and catastrophe risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2435-2454, October.
    9. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    10. Massimo Mariani & Paola Amoruso, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1760-1767.
    11. Han-Bin KANG & Hsuling CHANG & Tsangyao CHANG, 2022. "Catastrophe Reinsurance Pricing -Modification of Dynamic Asset-Liability Management," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-20, December.
    12. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2020. "Predicting catastrophe risk: Evidence from catastrophe bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Zhao, Yang & Yu, Min-Teh, 2019. "Measuring the liquidity impact on catastrophe bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 197-210.
    14. Sukono & Hafizan Juahir & Riza Andrian Ibrahim & Moch Panji Agung Saputra & Yuyun Hidayat & Igif Gimin Prihanto, 2022. "Application of Compound Poisson Process in Pricing Catastrophe Bonds: A Systematic Literature Review," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-19, July.
    15. Alexander Braun, 2016. "Pricing in the Primary Market for Cat Bonds: New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 811-847, December.
    16. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Research Paper Series 379, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Issouf Soumaré & Ernest Tafolong, 2017. "Risk-based capital for credit insurers with business cycles and dynamic leverage," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 597-612, April.
    18. Wang, Xingchun, 2016. "Catastrophe equity put options with target variance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 79-86.
    19. Braun, Alexander, 2011. "Pricing catastrophe swaps: A contingent claims approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 520-536.
    20. Chang, Carolyn W. & Li, Xiaodan & Lin, Edward M.H. & Yu, Min-Teh, 2018. "Systemic risk, interconnectedness, and non-core activities in Taiwan insurance industry," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 273-284.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0927538x19305165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.