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Structural change and financial instability in the US economy

Author

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  • Kenshiro Ninomiya

    (Rikkyo University)

  • Masaaki Tokuda

    (Shiga University)

Abstract

The international financial crisis triggered by the 2007 subprime loan crisis in the US continues to casts a shadow over the world economy and has prompted renewed attention to the financial instability hypothesis proposed by the heterodox economist Hyman P. Minsky. This study presents a macrodynamic model that examines the structural changes and the instability of confidence affecting a dynamic system. We demonstrate that an unstable economic structure and a high instability of confidence make the system unstable. In addition, we conduct a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to examine structural changes in the US economy, particularly in the late 1990s. Our analysis strongly indicates that the US economic structure has been transubstantiated since the late 1990s. The instability of confidence was very high after the subprime loan crisis and has directly affected investment since then.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenshiro Ninomiya & Masaaki Tokuda, 2021. "Structural change and financial instability in the US economy," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 205-226, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eaiere:v:18:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s40844-020-00169-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s40844-020-00169-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenshiro Ninomiya, 2022. "Financial structure, cycle, and instability," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Instability of confidence; VAR analysis; US economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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