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Decomposing Current Mortality Differences Into Initial Differences and Differences in Trends: The Contour Decomposition Method

Author

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  • Dmitri A. Jdanov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Vladimir M. Shkolnikov

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Alyson A. van Raalte

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Evgeny M. Andreev

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

This study proposes a new decomposition method that permits a difference in an aggregate measure at a final time point to be split into additive components corresponding to the initial differences in the event rates of the measure and differences in trends in these underlying event rates. For instance, when studying divergence in life expectancy, this method allows researchers to more easily contrast age-specific mortality trends between populations by controlling for initial age-specific mortality differences. Two approaches are assessed: (1) an additive change method that uses logic similar to cause-of-death decomposition, and (2) a contour decomposition method that extends the stepwise replacement algorithm along an age-period demographic contour. The two approaches produce similar results, but the contour method is more widely applicable. We provide a full description of the contour replacement method and examples of its application to life expectancy and lifetime disparity differences between the United States and England and Wales in the period 1980–2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitri A. Jdanov & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alyson A. van Raalte & Evgeny M. Andreev, 2017. "Decomposing Current Mortality Differences Into Initial Differences and Differences in Trends: The Contour Decomposition Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1579-1602, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0599-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-017-0599-6
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    2. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny M. Andreev, 2017. "The decomposition of the difference between two healthy life expectancies: which formula is right?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-016, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Michael Murphy, 2021. "Use of Counterfactual Population Projections for Assessing the Demographic Determinants of Population Ageing," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 211-242, March.
    4. Viorela Diaconu & Alyson van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen, 2022. "Why we should monitor disparities in old-age mortality with the modal age at death," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-13, February.

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