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Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

Author

Listed:
  • John R. Logan

    (Brown University)

  • Sukriti Issar

    (Observatoire Sociologique du Changement, Sciences Po)

  • Zengwang Xu

    (University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee)

Abstract

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Logan & Sukriti Issar & Zengwang Xu, 2016. "Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1511-1534, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:53:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1007_s13524-016-0496-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-016-0496-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James R. Elliott & Jeremy Pais, 2010. "When Nature Pushes Back: Environmental Impact and the Spatial Redistribution of Socially Vulnerable Populations," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(s1), pages 1187-1202.
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    3. James R. Elliott & Jeremy Pais, 2010. "When Nature Pushes Back: Environmental Impact and the Spatial Redistribution of Socially Vulnerable Populations," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1187-1202, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Caroline Zickgraf, 2019. "Keeping People in Place: Political Factors of (Im)mobility and Climate Change," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Bimal Kanti Paul & Munshi Khaledur Rahman & Max Lu & Thomas W. Crawford, 2022. "Household Migration and Intentions for Future Migration in the Climate Change Vulnerable Lower Meghna Estuary of Coastal Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Ethan J. Raker, 2020. "Natural Hazards, Disasters, and Demographic Change: The Case of Severe Tornadoes in the United States, 1980–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 653-674, April.
    5. Elizabeth Fussell & Sara R. Curran & Matthew D. Dunbar & Michael A. Babb & Luanne Thompson & Jacqueline Meijer-Irons, 2017. "Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 669(1), pages 146-167, January.
    6. Catalina Anampa Castro & Katherine Curtis & Jack DeWaard & Elizabeth Fussell & Kathryn McConnell & Kobie Price & Michael Soto & Stephan D. Whitaker, 2021. "Migration as a Vector of Economic Losses from Disaster-Affected Areas in the United States," Working Papers 21-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Mallick, Bishawjit, 2023. "Environmental non-migration: Analysis of drivers, factors, and their significance," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).

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