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Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth Fussell
  • Sara R. Curran
  • Matthew D. Dunbar
  • Michael A. Babb
  • Luanne Thompson
  • Jacqueline Meijer-Irons

Abstract

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth Fussell & Sara R. Curran & Matthew D. Dunbar & Michael A. Babb & Luanne Thompson & Jacqueline Meijer-Irons, 2017. "Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 669(1), pages 146-167, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:669:y:2017:i:1:p:146-167
    DOI: 10.1177/0002716216682942
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clark, Tom S. & Linzer, Drew A., 2015. "Should I Use Fixed or Random Effects?," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 399-408, May.
    2. Bilsborrow, Richard E., 1992. "Rural poverty, migration, and the environment in developing countries : three case studies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1017, The World Bank.
    3. Clark, Tom S. & Linzer, Drew A., 2015. "Should I Use Fixed or Random Effects?," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 399-408, May.
    4. John R. Logan & Sukriti Issar & Zengwang Xu, 2016. "Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(5), pages 1511-1534, October.
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