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Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler

    (IIASA-International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Juraj Balkovič

    (IIASA-International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Comenius University in Bratislava)

  • Kadri Silm

    (University of Vienna)

  • Anna Timonina-Farkas

    (University of Vienna
    Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL))

Abstract

Droughts pose a significant challenge to farmers, insurers as well as governments around the world and the situation is expected to worsen in the future due to climate change. We present a large scale drought risk assessment approach that can be used for current and future risk management purposes. Our suggested methodology is a combination of a large scale agricultural computational modelling -, extreme value-, as well as copula approach to upscale local crop yield risks to the national scale. We show that combining regional probabilistic estimates will significantly underestimate losses if the dependencies between regions during drought events are not taken explicitly into account. Among the many ways to use these results it is shown how it enables the assessment of current and future costs of subsidized drought insurance in Austria.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Juraj Balkovič & Kadri Silm & Anna Timonina-Farkas, 2019. "Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 651-669, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:16:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10287-018-0339-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10287-018-0339-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Brenden Jongman & Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler & Luc Feyen & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts & Reinhard Mechler & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Laurens M. Bouwer & Georg Pflug & Rodrigo Rojas & Philip J. Ward, 2014. "Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 264-268, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guzmics Sándor & Pflug Georg Ch., 2020. "A new extreme value copula and new families of univariate distributions based on Freund’s exponential model," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 330-360, January.
    2. Guzmics Sándor & Pflug Georg Ch., 2020. "A new extreme value copula and new families of univariate distributions based on Freund’s exponential model," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 330-360, January.
    3. Timonina-Farkas, Anna & Katsifou, Argyro & Seifert, Ralf W., 2020. "Product assortment and space allocation strategies to attract loyal and non-loyal customers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 1058-1076.
    4. Anna Timonina‐Farkas & René Y. Glogg & Ralf W. Seifert, 2022. "Limiting the impact of supply chain disruptions in the face of distributional uncertainty in demand," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(10), pages 3788-3805, October.

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