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Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Author

Listed:
  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Matteo Muratori

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Patrick Lamers

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University
    Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research)

  • Alban Kitous

    (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission)

  • Alexandre C. Köberle

    (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Nico Bauer

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK))

  • Martin Junginger

    (Utrecht University)

  • Etsushi Kato

    (The Institute of Applied Energy)

  • Florian Leblanc

    (International Research Center on the Environment and Development (CIRED))

  • Silvana Mima

    (Univ. Grenoble Alpes)

  • Marshal Wise

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland)

  • Detlef P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

Abstract

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Vassilis Daioglou & Matteo Muratori & Patrick Lamers & Shinichiro Fujimori & Alban Kitous & Alexandre C. Köberle & Nico Bauer & Martin Junginger & Etsushi Kato & Florian Leblanc & Silvana Mima & Marsh, 2020. "Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1639-1658, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02877-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02877-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hof, A.F. & Esmeijer, K. & de Boer, H.S. & Daioglou, V. & Doelman, J.C. & Elzen, M.G.J. den & Gernaat, D.E.H.J. & van Vuuren, D.P., 2022. "Regional energy diversity and sovereignty in different 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    2. Leanda C. Garvie & David J. Lee & Biljana Kulišić, 2024. "Towards a Bioeconomy: Supplying Forest Residues for the Australian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Toma, Pierluigi & Frittelli, Massimo & Apergis, Nicholas, 2023. "The economic sustainability of optimizing feedstock imports with environmental constraints," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    4. Fanny Groundstroem & Sirkku Juhola, 2021. "Using systems thinking and causal loop diagrams to identify cascading climate change impacts on bioenergy supply systems," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 1-48, October.
    5. Vassilis Daioglou & Steven K. Rose & Nico Bauer & Alban Kitous & Matteo Muratori & Fuminori Sano & Shinichiro Fujimori & Matthew J. Gidden & Etsushi Kato & Kimon Keramidas & David Klein & Florian Lebl, 2020. "Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1603-1620, December.
    6. Wu, Yazhen & Deppermann, Andre & Havlík, Petr & Frank, Stefan & Ren, Ming & Zhao, Hao & Ma, Lin & Fang, Chen & Chen, Qi & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Global land-use and sustainability implications of enhanced bioenergy import of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    7. Oshiro, Ken & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2022. "Role of hydrogen-based energy carriers as an alternative option to reduce residual emissions associated with mid-century decarbonization goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

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